623
FXUS61 KRLX 230611
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
211 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AREAS OF PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND MOSTLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN LOWLANDS. 06Z
AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
DENSE VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS WILL AREAS OF PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHERN LOWLANDS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL REMAIN A SOLID INFLUENCE OVER
OUR WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. DRY
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AS A RESULT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY MODERATE AND COMFORTABLE OVER THE
NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SEASONABLE NORMAL FOR THE AREA WITH THE
LOWLANDS REACHING THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S EACH DAY AND THE
MOUNTAINS STAYING IN THE 50S TO MID 60S.
LOW TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 30S TO MID 40S.
THE LOWER END OF THE RANGE WILL BE MORE COMMON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS, BUT THESE LOWER TEMPERATURES COULD CREEP INTO THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOWLANDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS LEADING
TO SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FROST. THE GROWING SEASON IS STILL
ACTIVE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM EACH
MORNING, PARTICULARLY IN THE RIVER VALLEY AND SHELTERED MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS.
DEW POINTS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY EACH AFTERNOON WITH 30S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND 40S IN THE LOWLANDS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
BE IN THE COMFORTABLE TO SLIGHTLY DRY RANGE (40 TO 60%) FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH A FEW VALLEYS REACHING THE 20S AND 30S. WARMER
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL CAUSE DRIER RH VALUES IN THE
30S AND 20S ACROSS A DECENT CHUNK OF THE LOWLANDS AND MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS. RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH NIGHT THOUGH AND WINDS WILL
BE CALM TO LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
LOW AT THIS TIME.
A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MID WEEK AND STALL
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
CURRENTLY, RAIN CHANCES DO NOT LOOK TO RETURN UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND
WITH THE CROSSING OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, FLEETING CHANCES
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PROMINENT THROUGH
THE PERIOD, OUTSIDE OF DENSE FOG FORMATION ACROSS THE RIVER AND
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS BETWEEN ~09Z AND ~14Z THIS MORNING. IFR
CONDITIONS OR LOWER SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH ANY FOG FORMATION.
MOST LIKELY SITES TO BE IMPACTED BY FOG THIS MORNING INCLUDE,
BUT ARE NOT STRICTLY LIMITED TO CRW AND EKN. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AREA WIDE AFTER FOG LIFTS AND SCATTERS LATER THIS
MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE CALM ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING, LIGHT
AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
(4-7 KNOTS) AND NE'RLY THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING, LOCATION, AND IMPACTS CAUSED BY
DENSE FOG MAY VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 10/23/26
UTC 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
EDT 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M L L L L H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M L L L L H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
DENSE VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED EACH MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
IFR CONDITIONS OR LOWER ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY FOG FORMATION.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LTC
AVIATION...LTC
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