043
FXUS61 KRLX 231658
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1258 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO ONGOING AND QUIET FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY WEATHER AND MORNING RIVER FOG CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 7 DAYS, WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE EACH MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM
YESTERDAY, WITH THE APEX OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NOW SHIFTING INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE OMEGA BLOCK SITUATED ACROSS THE LOWER 48 IS
STILL INTACT, BUT IT WILL BEGIN TO COLLAPSE OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN
AMPLIFIED, NEUTRALLY-TILTING TROUGH DIGS EASTWARD INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. AS THIS OCCURS, THE CORE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS
WILL KEEP THE CWA DRY, WITH WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW AS
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT TENDENCIES RISE. PERSISTENCE FORECASTING HAS
BEEN APPLIED TO SATURDAY AND BEYOND, WITH THE CRYSTAL CLEAR SKY AT
NIGHT ALLOWING FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THE DEVELOPMENT
OF TYPICAL RIVER VALLEY FOG. PATCHY FROST CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN EACH MORNING THROUGH MONDAY, AND THE STAGNANT AIRMASS
WILL MAINTAIN CALM-TO-GENTLE WINDS.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT, WITH RIVER VALLEY FOG
RETURNING TOWARDS SUNRISE SATURDAY. FOG WILL CLEAR BY 24/14-15Z,
WITH VFR THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT NEXT 24+ HOURS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THE COVERAGE AND EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT MAY
VARY FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
SIGWX NIL UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE BESIDES MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SINCAVAGE
AVIATION...SINCAVAGE
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