204
FXUS61 KRLX 232202
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
602 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO ONGOING AND QUIET FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY WEATHER AND MORNING RIVER FOG CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 7 DAYS, WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE EACH MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM
YESTERDAY, WITH THE APEX OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NOW SHIFTING INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE OMEGA BLOCK SITUATED ACROSS THE LOWER 48 IS
STILL INTACT, BUT IT WILL BEGIN TO COLLAPSE OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN
AMPLIFIED, NEUTRALLY-TILTING TROUGH DIGS EASTWARD INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. AS THIS OCCURS, THE CORE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS
WILL KEEP THE CWA DRY, WITH WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW AS
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT TENDENCIES RISE. PERSISTENCE FORECASTING HAS
BEEN APPLIED TO SATURDAY AND BEYOND, WITH THE CRYSTAL CLEAR SKY AT
NIGHT ALLOWING FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THE DEVELOPMENT
OF TYPICAL RIVER VALLEY FOG. PATCHY FROST CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN EACH MORNING THROUGH MONDAY, AND THE STAGNANT AIRMASS
WILL MAINTAIN CALM-TO-GENTLE WINDS.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME LATE NIGHT EARLY MORNING DENSE RIVER VALLEY
FOG.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND LOCATION OF FOG COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
EDT 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
RIVER VALLEY FOG IS SET TO RETURN EACH MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SINCAVAGE
AVIATION...RPY
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