362
FXUS61 KRLX 251014
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
614 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY WEATHER AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK, WITH RIVER VALLEY FOG EXPECTED DURING THE
MORNING HOURS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST REMAINS THE BIG PLAYER IN OUR
WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND ARE THE ONLY MAIN POINTS FOR THE FORECAST. AREAS
OF RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL OCCUR EACH MORNING, BUT WIDESPREAD
FORMATION LOOKS LOW CONFIDENCE.
PLEASANT AND WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA CAN BE
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEK. THE LOWLANDS WILL SEE
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S, WITH THE MOUNTAINS REMAINING
IN THE 50S TO UPPER 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE CHILLY DUE TO A
VERY DRY AIRMASS OVERHEAD WITH 30S AND 40S BEING THE NORM
UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. AREAS OF PATCHY FROST WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AS A RESULT OF THESE TEMPERATURES EACH MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY.
MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE 30S AND 40S WILL BE COMMON FOR MANY
LOCATIONS EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO VERY DRY DEW POINTS AND WARM
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. FIRE WEATHER IS LOW RISK THOUGH DUE TO
CALM TO LIGHT WINDS WITH THE STAGNANT AIR MASS.
NEXT CHANCES OF RAIN ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE NEXT SATURDAY
WITH A POSSIBLE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. EVEN THEN
MODELS DO NOT HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE TIMING QUITE YET. DRY
AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL THEN.
AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 12-14Z THIS MORNING,
THEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A FEW TERMINALS MAY ONCE AGAIN EXPERIENCE
IFR/LIFR AS FOG REDEVELOPS IN THE RIVER VALLEYS BETWEEN 06-12Z
MONDAY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY, THEN CALM
TO LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT MAY VARY
FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 10/25/26
UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
EDT 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H L L L H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H M L L H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H L H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL OCCUR EACH MORNING INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LTC
AVIATION...20
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