727
FXUS61 KRLX 260935
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
535 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR TOUCH UPS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WERE ALL
THAT WAS NECESSARY WITH THIS MORNING'S UPDATE. ALSO, 12Z
AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATE.
146 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGE TO CONTINUED MESSAGING
OF DRY WEATHER THIS WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CONQUERING HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER THROUGH
THE END OF THE CALENDAR MONTH. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN RETURNS TO
THE FORECAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
FORECAST MESSAGING OF DRY WEATHER AMID ANCHORED HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS MUCH OF THE SAME FOR THE FINAL DAYS OF THE CALENDAR
MONTH. STRONG RIDGING ALOFT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE COURSE OF THE WORK WEEK, WHILE AT THE SURFACE, A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT QUIETLY PASSES OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. MAIN IMPLICATIONS TO THE
FORECAST WITH THIS SLIGHT PATTERN CHANGE WILL THEN BE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AND LESS RIVER VALLEY FOG AND FROST
POTENTIAL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A RESULT. OTHERWISE,
PROMINENTLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS TODAY THROUGH THE START OF THE
WEEKEND.
THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN FOR THE END OF OCTOBER, OPENING THE DOOR
FOR PRECIPITATION TO RETURN TO THE OHIO VALLEY. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THIS ARRIVING IN THE FORM OF A SOUTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCE LATE NEXT WEEKEND, WITH RAIN RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE FIRST TIME IN OVER A WEEK.
AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
CONQUERING HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO CONTROL FLIGHT CONDITIONS
FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK. EARLY MORNING FOG DEVELOPING IN THE
SHELTERED RIVER VALLEYS WILL BRANCH INTO PROMINENTLY CLEAR SKIES
BY THE AFTERNOONS. THIS PATTERN PROSPERS INTO THE END OF THE
CALENDAR MONTH. LIGHT AND VARIABLE DAYTIME WINDS GROW CALM EACH
NIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG EROSION AT EKN, PKB, AND POTENTIALLY
CRW COULD VARY THIS MORNING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 10/26/26
UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M L M H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M L M H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M L H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL OCCUR LATE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...05
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