507
FXUS61 KRLX 261715
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
115 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE WORK
WEEK, BUT RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE THIS WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH HALLOWEEN, WITH RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING LATE THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LARGE-AND-IN-CHARGE THIS WEEK AS THE OMEGA
BLOCK SITUATED ACROSS THE U.S. CONTINUES TO COLLAPSE. THE CENTER OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED AT 591 DAM PER THE 12Z
UA CHARTS, WAS CENTERED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH, WITH ITS APEX ECLIPSING
THE CWA. FARTHER NORTH, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DIGGING INTO FAR
EASTERN CANADA; AND THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. WESTERLY
WINDS TODAY WILL TRANSITION TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST POST-FROPA, WITH
THE FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR OR ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR. BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, THE OMEGA BLOCK WILL HAVE COMPLETELY COLLAPSED,
WHICH WILL ALLOW AN ATTENUATING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO EJECT OVER THE
OH RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
AS THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES TO THE WEST OF THE CWA, THE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT STALLED ACROSS THE REGION THE PREVIOUS DAY
WILL UNDERGO WARM-FRONTOGENESIS AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD BENEATH A
THICKENING CIRROFORM OVERCAST. THE NET RESULT OF THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENTS TO MOISTURE WITHIN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER
DUE TO THE RESTRICTIONS OF FULL INSOLATION AND THE PRESENCE OF THE
MODIFIED RETURN FLOW. FULL SUNSHINE IS SET TO RETURN THURSDAY, AS
THE PREVIOUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HAVE QUICKLY BECOME ABSORBED INTO
A LARGE-SCALE, CYCLONIC GYRE-LIKE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN
LATITUDES OF NORTH AMERICA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL THEN WARM INTO
THE MIDDLE-UPPER 70S BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS GEOPOTENTIAL
HEIGHT TENDENCIES REMAIN SLIGHTLY POSITIVE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW IS FORECAST TO ENCOMPASS THE CWA THIS WEEKEND,
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER, BUT STILL MILD, TEMPERATURES AND A THICKENING
OVERCAST FOR HALLOWEEN. RAIN CHANCES ARE APPEARING TO ARRIVE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY, BUT IT IS TOO SOON TO IRON OUT THE
EXACT TIMING OF POPS. BY THE TIME HALLOWEEN ARRIVES, THIS WILL BE
THE LONGEST STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER OBSERVED FOR THE CHARLESTON AREA
SINCE THE FALL OF 2017, WHEN THERE WAS NO PRECIPITATION FOR 23 DAYS
IN A ROW, WITH THIS STRETCH BEING 14 DAYS COME HALLOWEEN.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH RIVER VALLEY FOG
RETURNING TO KEKN, KPKB, AND POSSIBLY KCRW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND TRANSITION TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY MORNING AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE REGION AND STALLS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THE COVERAGE AND TIMING OF FOG TONIGHT MAY VARY
FROM THE FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL RETURN TO AT LEAST KEKN AND KPKB EACH MORNING
THIS WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR THE OTHER TERMINALS. RAIN
CHANCES RETURN LATE THIS WEEKEND.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SINCAVAGE
AVIATION...SINCAVAGE
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