454
FXUS61 KRLX 262210
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
610 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE WORK
WEEK, BUT RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE THIS WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH HALLOWEEN, WITH RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING LATE THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LARGE-AND-IN-CHARGE THIS WEEK AS THE OMEGA
BLOCK SITUATED ACROSS THE U.S. CONTINUES TO COLLAPSE. THE CENTER OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED AT 591 DAM PER THE 12Z
UA CHARTS, WAS CENTERED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH, WITH ITS APEX ECLIPSING
THE CWA. FARTHER NORTH, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DIGGING INTO FAR
EASTERN CANADA; AND THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. WESTERLY
WINDS TODAY WILL TRANSITION TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST POST-FROPA, WITH
THE FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR OR ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR. BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, THE OMEGA BLOCK WILL HAVE COMPLETELY COLLAPSED,
WHICH WILL ALLOW AN ATTENUATING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO EJECT OVER THE
OH RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
AS THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES TO THE WEST OF THE CWA, THE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT STALLED ACROSS THE REGION THE PREVIOUS DAY
WILL UNDERGO WARM-FRONTOGENESIS AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD BENEATH A
THICKENING CIRROFORM OVERCAST. THE NET RESULT OF THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENTS TO MOISTURE WITHIN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER
DUE TO THE RESTRICTIONS OF FULL INSOLATION AND THE PRESENCE OF THE
MODIFIED RETURN FLOW. FULL SUNSHINE IS SET TO RETURN THURSDAY, AS
THE PREVIOUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HAVE QUICKLY BECOME ABSORBED INTO
A LARGE-SCALE, CYCLONIC GYRE-LIKE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN
LATITUDES OF NORTH AMERICA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL THEN WARM INTO
THE MIDDLE-UPPER 70S BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS GEOPOTENTIAL
HEIGHT TENDENCIES REMAIN SLIGHTLY POSITIVE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW IS FORECAST TO ENCOMPASS THE CWA THIS WEEKEND,
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER, BUT STILL MILD, TEMPERATURES AND A THICKENING
OVERCAST FOR HALLOWEEN. RAIN CHANCES ARE APPEARING TO ARRIVE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY, BUT IT IS TOO SOON TO IRON OUT THE
EXACT TIMING OF POPS. BY THE TIME HALLOWEEN ARRIVES, THIS WILL BE
THE LONGEST STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER OBSERVED FOR THE CHARLESTON AREA
SINCE THE FALL OF 2017, WHEN THERE WAS NO PRECIPITATION FOR 23 DAYS
IN A ROW, WITH THIS STRETCH BEING 14 DAYS COME HALLOWEEN.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME LATE NIGHT EARLY MORNING DENSE RIVER VALLEY
FOG.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND LOCATION OF FOG COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
EDT 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
SOME IFR IN RAIN IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SINCAVAGE
AVIATION...RPY
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