865
FXUS61 KRLX 270433
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1233 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST TRENDS REMAIN ON COURSE HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND, WITH
THE EXTENDED DRY SPELL COMING TO AN END LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY AND WARM WEATHER RULES THE ROOST THROUGH THE START OF THE
WEEKEND.
2) AFTER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER PREVAILING THROUGH
THE END OF OCTOBER, NOVEMBER OPENS UP WITH THE RETURN OF RAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING DEPICTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT IS PROGGED TO SLIP DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE LACK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE BOUNDARY AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT WILL
MITIGATE ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT
REMAINS NESTLED NEARBY.
AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY LESSENS THIS
WEEK, A FEW SUBTLETIES TO THE FORECAST WILL ENSUE. WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARBY TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY, AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVERAGE WILL TAKE SHAPE. ONCE THE BOUNDARY RETREATS TO
THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT, THE SURFACE HIGH WILL REGAIN CONTROL
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND PROMOTE AMPLE SUNSHINE ONCE
MORE. ADDITIONALLY, POST-FRONTAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
ENCOURAGE A SLIGHT WARM UP THAT WILL MITIGATE ANY CONCERN FOR
FROST/FREEZE MESSAGING, AS OVERNIGHT LOWS GROW MILDER WITHIN
THIS REGIME. THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN FURTHER INTO THE WEEKEND,
WITH A PATTERN CHANGE PROGGED TO TAKE SHAPE BEGINNING ON
HALLOWEEN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE PREDOMINANT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER ROUNDING OUT THE SECOND
HALF OF OCTOBER COMES TO A CONCLUSION THIS WEEKEND AS
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN US TAKES AIM FOR
THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL REINTRODUCE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
BACK INTO THE FORECAST AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING, AND MAINTAINING UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. TIMING AND EXTENT OF
THIS APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BE HASHED OUT AS
WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF
PERIOD, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EARLY MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG AT
OUR NORTHERN TERMINALS. ANY RESTRICTIONS CAUSED BY FOG AND LOW
STRATUS NOTED THIS MORNING WILL ERODE BY 14Z, BRANCHING BACK OUT
INTO TRIUMPHANT VFR FOR THE DAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH; MEDIUM IN FOG.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND LOCATION OF FOG COULD VARY THIS
MORNING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 10/27/26
UTC 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
EDT 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR IN LOW STRATUS AND FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...05
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