085
FXUS63 KSGF 141734
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1134 AM CST THU NOV 14 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FOG WITH VISIBILITIES LESS THAN A HALF MILE LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A TRUMAN
LAKE TO HARTVILLE TO WEST PLAINS LINE. ADDITIONAL PATCHY FOG
IS EXPECTED FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
- PLEASANT END TO THE WEEK WITH SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA FROM LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
- MONITORING A PATTERN CHANGE BY MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK DUE TO A
POTENTIALLY STRONG COLD FRONT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 900 AM CST THU NOV 14 2024
WE HAVE ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR AREAS OF THE EASTERN
OZARKS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A TRUMAN LAKE TO HARTVILLE TO
WEST PLAINS LINE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION
INTO TONIGHT WITH THE DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS SLOWLY
PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING.
DEW POINTS WILL HOVER IN THE LOWER 40S THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
EASTERN OZARKS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S. USING THE UPS CROSS-OVER TEMPERATURE
TECHNIQUE, WE ARE LOOKING AT 4-6 DEGREE NET DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS AND FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES. THIS IS
SUPPORTIVE OF DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITIES FALLING TO A HALF MILE
OR LESS.
THE ONE POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT WOULD BE THE CLOUDS NOT
CLEARING AS QUICKLY ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS. THIS WOULD
MITIGATE FOG DEVELOPMENT. WE ARE NOT GOING TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY
AT THIS POINT, BUT IT WILL BE CONSIDERED WITH THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST PACKAGE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 123 AM CST THU NOV 14 2024
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD BRINGING A PLEASANT END TO THE WORK WEEK. EXPECT
CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S AND LOWS IN THE 30S
AND 40S. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FOR TODAY BEFORE
SWITCHING TO THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 123 AM CST THU NOV 14 2024
THE WEATHER PATTERN GETS A BIT MORE INTERESTING IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HIGHS FOR THIS WEEKEND WILL STILL BE WARM IN THE 60S
WITH CLOUDS BUILDING IN ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY BRINGING A
COLD FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. RAIN WILL START TO MOVE
IN SUNDAY EVENING AND LINGER INTO MONDAY. THEN, A BLOCKING
PATTERN SETS UP OVER THE WEST COAST BY MID-WEEK. THIS WILL HELP
TO USHER IN SOME COLDER ARCTIC AIR FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS THAT
DAY POTENTIALLY ONLY MAKING IT INTO THE 40S. MODELS ARE
ACTUALLY IN DECENT AGREEMENT REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC SET-UP.
THOUGH, THERE ARE STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH HOW COLD IT
WILL ACTUALLY GET AND HOW THE PRECIPITATION SITUATION WILL
UNFOLD. TEMPERATURES WITH THAT FRONT COULD STILL CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR US TO SEE OUR FIRST
SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON NEXT WEEK. EITHER WAY, PREPARE FOR A
DRASTIC PATTERN CHANGE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS AT LEAST 20 DEGREES
COOLER THAN WE'VE BEEN SEEING HERE LATELY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST THU NOV 14 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER. SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN BELOW 12 KNOTS
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVERHEAD.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
UPDATE...SCHAUMANN
SHORT TERM...SORIA
LONG TERM...SORIA
AVIATION...SCHAUMANN
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