882
FXUS63 KSGF 152031
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
231 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- PLEASANT AND DRY THROUGH SATURDAY.
- A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NICELY SHOWS MISSOURI RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON, ACTING TO KEEP SKIES
CLEAR OVER THE CWA. TO THE WEST, A MID-LEVEL WAVE IS DIGGING
ACROSS THE PACIFIC WEST. TO THE EAST, A STRATUS DECK
OVERSPREADS MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE STRATUS DECK WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND BACK TO THE EAST
OVERNIGHT, LIKELY CREEPING INTO THE EASTERN OZARKS. HOW QUICKLY
THIS STRATUS ERODES WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THIS AREA. MORE
STUBBORN CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S, WHILE
QUICKER CLEARING WOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
60S. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TOMORROW MORNING--PARTICULARLY
WEST OF SPRINGFIELD, AS A SURFACE LOWS LIFTS THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. OTHERWISE,
DRY AND QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST
FRI NOV 15 2024
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE FOR SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLES HAVE
CONSISTENTLY SHOWN THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. DE-SYNCING WITH THE NORTHERN WAVE LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY, CLOSING OFF TWO DISTINCT LOWS: ONE THAT TRANSITS
SOUTHERN CANADA, AND ANOTHER THAT LIFTS INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE LATTER IS WHAT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES
ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA.
GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM TO BE QUITE
NOTEWORTHY, WITH NAEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES BOTH DEPICTING -2 TO
-3 STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES FOR SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE IN THE REGION.
HUMMING 110+ KT 500 MB WINDS AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT, PARTICULARLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN
MISSOURI AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. LIKEWISE, PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REACH NEAR-CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMA ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS WHERE A PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE
SURGES NORTHWARD, AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TO FALL.
RAIN FOR OUR AREA APPEARS TO COME IN TWO WAVES: ONE WITH THE
"WARM" FRONT AS IT LIFTS THROUGH THE MISSOURI OZARKS SUNDAY
EVENING, AND ANOTHER WITH THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
THE HIGHEST FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF
I-44 CLOSER TO THE BETTER MOISTURE CONTENT AND DYNAMICS. RAIN
LOOKS TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
FRONT EXITS THE AREA.
THE LATEST 48-HR NBM PROBABILISTIC DATA ARE AS FOLLOWS:
>0.5 INCH: 60-90%
>1 INCH: 30-85%
>2 INCHES: 10-40%
>3 INCHES: <20%
ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL REMAINS UNCLEAR BUT LIMITED AT
THIS POINT, WITH INSTABILITY APPEARING MEAGER. OF COURSE, LOW
CAPE/HIGH SHEAR SETUPS CAN BE TRICKY TO GET A HANDLE ON
(ESPECIALLY THIS FAR OUT), SO FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES WILL BE
ABLE TO BETTER ASSESS ANY POTENTIAL.
ANOTHER IMPORTANT ELEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE STRONG
WINDS IT BRINGS ON MONDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS LOOK TO PICK UP
MONDAY MORNING, PEAK IN THE AFTERNOON, DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT,
AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. NBM PROBABILITIES
OF GUSTS GREATER THAN 30 MPH ARE GREATER THAN 50% ACROSS
ESSENTIALLY THE ENTIRE CWA, AND PROBABILITIES OF 45 MPH
(ADVISORY CRITERIA) ARE HIGHEST WEST OF SPRINGFIELD. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT THE NBM 4.2 CAN TEND TO HAVE A LOW BIAS WHEN IT
COMES TO WIND GUSTS IN THE EXTENDED, AND THE QMD DATA (WHICH TRY
TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL BIAS) DO SHOW HIGHER PROBABILITIES.
ENSEMBLES CLUSTERS BEGIN TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT VARIATION IN THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN TUESDAY AND BEYOND, WHICH LIMITS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE. OVERALL, HOWEVER, THEY DO SUGGEST A COLDER AIRMASS
MOVING INTO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE DIVES
SOUTH. NBM INTERQUARTILE RANGES SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY
REACHING THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR THE FREEZING MARK. WITH THIS WAVE *COULD*
COME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES, THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS
VERY LOW, AND POPS ARE ONLY AROUND 20%.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT THE TERMINAL SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A STRATUS DECK WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ACROSS
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS WILL EXPAND WEST INTO THE
EASTERN OZARKS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, BUT IS EXPECTED TO STAY JUST
EAST OF THE SGF AND BBG TERMINALS.
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER 12Z TOMORROW,
PARTICULARLY AT JLN, SUSTAINED AT 10-13 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KT.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DIDIO
LONG TERM...DIDIO
AVIATION...DIDIO
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