719
FXUS63 KSGF 160925
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
325 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- PLEASANT AND DRY THROUGH TODAY.
- A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING THUNDERSTORMS AND WINDY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 204 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
CLOUDS BEGIN TO MOVE IN TODAY AS THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE BEGINS.
DEWPOINTS REBOUND INTO THE MID 40S BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SURFACE LOW TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT A BIT TODAY BRINGING
US SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 25-30 MPH BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HIGHEST WIND GUSTS WILL OCCUR WEST OF HIGHWAY 65. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE IN THE 60S WITH WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S
AND 50S DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 204 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
SUNDAY-MONDAY: SUNDAY WILL BE CLOUDY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S AND WILL START OFF DRY. BY THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS, RAIN CHANCES INCREASE (30-50%) FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
WARM FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO
THE AREA. FROM THEN, RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT (70-100%)
INTO MONDAY.
AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THIS RAIN EVENT
TO START THE WEEK DUE TO AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER COMING OFF OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO STRAIGHT INTO THE PLAINS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING PWAT VALUES ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR US THIS TIME
OF YEAR. THE BEST AXIS OF MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE SET UP OVER
SOUTHERN KS AND CENTRAL OK, BUT THIS AXIS APPEARS TO CLIP OUR SE
KS/SW MO COUNTIES. HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS WILL LIKELY FALL
WEST OF HIGHWAY 65. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON MONDAY AS THIS TROUGH DIGS INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOST OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL, HIGHEST
THUNDER POTENTIAL, AND STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR WEST OF
HIGHWAY 65.
-THE NBM 48-HOUR PROBABILITY FOR RAINFALL EXCEEDING 2" IS AROUND
40-50% FROM OUR SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS COUNTIES INTO WESTERN
MISSOURI. AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 ARE AROUND 15-25%.
-NBM 48-HOUR PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING 3" IS ABOUT 15% OVER
THESE SAME AREAS. AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 ARE UNDER 10%.
-SUSTAINED SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20-30 MPH LOOK LIKELY ALONG WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH FOR MONDAY. NBM PROBABILITIES OF GUSTS
REACHING 45 MPH ARE RUNNING IN THE 30-50% RANGE NORTH OF I-44
AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 65. THERE'S ALSO CURRENTLY A 30% OF SEEING
50 MPH WIND GUSTS FOR THIS SAME AREA. IF THIS UPWARD TREND
CONTINUES, WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR A WIND ADVISORY ON
MONDAY FOR SW MO AS OUR THRESHOLD IS 45 MPH.
-INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS TO BE LIMITED BUT WITH THE GUSTY WINDS
IN PLACE, WE COULD SEE A HIGH SHEAR LOW CAPE SET UP. SPC HAS
MOST OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON
MONDAY. BIGGEST THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY: AFTER THE FIRST COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY, ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY. A BLOCKING PATTERN SETS UP OVER THE WEST COAST BY
MID- WEEK. THIS WILL HELP TO USHER IN SOME COLDER AIR MAKING FOR
AN ABRUPT PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THE COOLER
AIR WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE AREA STARTING ON WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS THE REST OF THE WEEK ONLY MAKING IT INTO THE 40S AND 50S.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST
RUNS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THE TEMPERATURE SPREAD IS STILL
ABOUT 10 DEGREES THAT FAR OUT, BUT STILL EXPECT IT TO BE COOLER
THAN WE'VE EXPERIENCED HERE LATELY. THOUGH, WITH THESE WARMER
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE, OUR CHANCE TO SEE SNOWFLAKES HAS MOST
LIKELY DISAPPEARED. AS FOR RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS FRONT, THEY
HAVE STARTED TO DECREASE AS WELL. AS OF NOW, OUR DEWPOINTS DO
TAKE A 15 DEGREE HIT FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE INFLUX OF
DRY AIR MAY MAKE IT CHALLENGING FOR RAIN TO OVERCOME IT. AGAIN,
THESE DISCREPANCIES IN TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES ARE
CORRELATED TO THE MOVEMENT OF THESE TROUGHS. STAY UP TO DATE
WITH LATEST FORECAST AS THIS ALL CONTINUES TO EVOLVE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS/VIS AT BBG HAS DIMINISHED
FOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST WITH INCREASING GUSTS THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR LOOKS TO RETURN AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SORIA
LONG TERM...SORIA
AVIATION...BURCHFIELD
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