438
FXUS63 KSGF 170737
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
137 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA FROM
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.
- SOME RECORD WARMEST MINIMUMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. SEE
CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS.
- MAIN PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE
THE TEMPERATURES TURN COOL ENOUGH FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 137 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND CURRENT CONDITIONS: TWO MAIN AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE ARE SHOWING UP IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS. ONE ALONG THE U.S/CANADA BORDER OVER NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND THE OTHER OVER FAR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WITH A TROUGH
IN BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS. PACIFIC MOISTURE WAS STREAMING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST VIA BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW. LOWER IN THE ATMOSPHERE, LOW PRESSURE
WAS DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW
POSITION AND A LOW LEVEL JET WAS BEGINNING TO BRING GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA.
TODAY: MAY POTENTIALLY SEE SOME WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS(15-25%)
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE UPPER WAVE. GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF THE LOW WITH PW VALUES IN THE MEAN
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES RISING INTO THE 1.25 TO 1.35" RANGE DURING THE
DAY. THIS WOULD BE IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE TO MAX RANGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR AND WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE RAINFALL AS THE LIFT
INCREASES TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER.
TONIGHT: SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD(80-100%) NORTHWEST OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR WITH
40-70% CHANCES SOUTHEAST OF THE INTERSTATE. MOISTURE CONTENT
WILL REMAIN HIGH AS DEEP LIFTING OCCURS FROM UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW AND A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET AT 40-50KTS. INSTABILITY LOOKS PRETTY WEAK, BUT ENOUGH
WHEN COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT REMAINING IN PLACE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH CLOUD COVER AND WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUING. SOME RECORD OR NEAR RECORD LOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE AREA FOR MONDAY MORNING (AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW THESE LOWS BY MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT). SEE CLIMATE SECTION
FOR DETAILS.
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT: THE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER WAVE WILL PUSH
INTO WESTERN MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS BY LATE IN THE DAY. A
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIT OVER THE AREA AND WE'LL
LIKELY SEE WIND GUSTS FROM 30 TO 45 MPH DURING THE DAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA (60-100%).
INSTABILITY LOOKS PRETTY WEAK, BUT THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS MAY
PRODUCE SOME STRONG WINDS TO NEAR SEVERE WIND GUSTS GIVEN THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS EXPECTED TO ALREADY BE IN PLACE. WE ARE
MAINTAINING A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK(1 OF 5) FOR THIS REASON. THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT
WITH CONVECTION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. QPF HAVE GONE DOWN
SLIGHTLY, BUT STILL BETWEEN AN INCH TO INCH AND A HALF WEST OF
THE U.S. 65 CORRIDOR THROUGH EVENT. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IF TRAINING CAN OCCUR GIVEN THE HIGH PW VALUES.
WHILE WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED, WE MAY HAVE SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING DEVELOP IN LOW LYING AREAS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 137 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY. A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND A
COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THIS FRONT. THE COLD CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL KIND OF SKIRT OUR
REGION WITH THE BULK OF THE COLDER AIR REMAINING TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST. AS A RESULT, ANY SNOW CHANCES LOOK TO BE FOR A TIME
YET TO BE DETERMINED. WE DO DROP BELOW NORMAL IN TEMPERATURES
FOR THE MID TO END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOW
50S WED-FRI AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. LITTLE TO NO
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING HOWEVER MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY BUILD IN LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE A FEW
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS COULD OCCUR DURING THE DAY (20%
CHANCE), MOST OF THE RAIN IS LIKELY TO OCCUR TOWARDS THE VERY
END OF THE TAF PERIOD OR JUST BEYOND. THE CHANCE OF IFR
CEILINGS ALSO INCREASES AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WITH GUSTS AROUND
20KTS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY AT THE START OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 137 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
DATE /STATION RECORD WARMEST FORECAST LOWEST
LOWS TEMPERATURES
MONDAY 11/18
SPRINGFIELD 59/1942 59
JOPLIN 64/1942 58
WEST PLAINS 53/1991 57
VICHY 58/1899 56
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LINDENBERG
LONG TERM...LINDENBERG
AVIATION...BURCHFIELD
CLIMATE...LINDENBERG
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