160
FXUS63 KSGF 180450
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1050 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING.
- SOME RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.
SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
WARM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, AS
EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER
70S CURRENTLY UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING WILL ONLY COOL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S AND
WITH SOME RECORD WARM LOWS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO
MOVE NORTH OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND ACROSS KANSAS
ON MONDAY AND INTO IOWA MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE LOW WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND LIFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
LATE THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP WITHIN THIS BAND OF LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW. INSTABILITY
WILL BE LIMITED BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FOR A FEW EMBEDDED
RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITHIN THE SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. COVERAGE IN THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE BETTER TO THE WEST
OF HIGHWAY 65 AND ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-49 CLOSER TO THE LOW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 65 WHERE THE BETTER COVERAGE IN THE
CONVECTION WILL OCCUR. AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTH ON MONDAY
THE RAIN WILL ALSO MOVE NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA WITH A BREAK
IN THE RAIN DEVELOPING MONDAY MORNING.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION EAST OF THE
LOW ON MONDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE REGION WHICH
COULD LIMIT HOW DEEP THE MIXING OCCURS TOMORROW BUT WITH STRONG
LOW LEVEL WINDS GUSTS UP TO 35 TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES
MONDAY.
AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS KANSAS MONDAY
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT AS FORCING OCCURS ALONG THE FRONT. INSTABILITY
WILL BE WEAK ACROSS THE AREA WITH 200 TO 400J/KG OF MUCAPE, WITH
WEAKER LOW LEVEL CAPE. WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS
SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN RISK. WIND SHEAR WILL BE STRONG, BUT LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK AND CANNOT SUPPORT A BALANCE TO
SLIGHT SHEAR DOMINATE LINE. THEREFORE THE TORNADO POTENTIAL IS
OVERALL LOW DUE TO THE LIMITED LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY EVENING.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT THE LINE WILL
OVERALL MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE EAST.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL WARM INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A DRIER AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE AND
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A
COLDER AIR MASS ADVECTS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE TROUGH. HIGHS
IN THE 40S AND LOWERS IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
THEN BUILD EAST INTO THE PLAINS BY NEXT WEEKEND RETURNING
TEMPERATURES TO CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR TO THE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
AS RAIN MOVES IN BY 8-9Z. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INTO
MVFR WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AS RAIN MOVES THROUGH.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER AND HAVE USED
PROB30 FOR THE 9-12Z TIMEFRAME. A BREAK IN THE RAIN IS LIKELY
DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE ON MONDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30KTS LIKELY.
SGF AND JLN MAY EVEN SEE GUSTS OVER 35KTS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
IS LIKELY AT THE SITES AS WELL ON MONDAY.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 137 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
DATE /STATION RECORD WARMEST FORECAST LOWEST
LOWS TEMPERATURES
MONDAY 11/18
SPRINGFIELD 59/1942 59
JOPLIN 64/1942 58
WEST PLAINS 53/1991 57
VICHY 58/1899 56
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...BURCHFIELD
CLIMATE...LINDENBERG
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