870
FXUS63 KSGF 182349
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
549 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS UP TO 50MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
LINE.
- WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45MPH
CONTINUE TO OCCUR AT TIMES.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE AREA DURING DURING THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO IOWA TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW INTO
THIS EVENING AS GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR
AT TIMES. WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE LATE THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL
9PM THIS EVENING FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 65 AS GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS.
A COLD FRONT IS ALSO MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. A LINE OF SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT
ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT AND LINE OF
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE LINE AND LOCATIONS COULD PICK UP TO
AROUND AN ADDITIONAL ONE HALF INCH OF RAINFALL WITH THIS
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INSTABILITY IS REALLY WEAK
ACROSS THE AREA, BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE. OVERALL MAINLY
EXPECTING A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS TO OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT AS
IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING. THE WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE RISK ACROSS THE AREA, BUT WITH
STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALIZED WIND
GUSTS UP TO 50MPH THAT MAY BE ABLE TO BE MIXED DOWN TO THE
SURFACE WITHIN THE LINE OF SHOWERS INTO THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
STORMS WILL DEVELOP UNDER THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS ACROSS
KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE NORTHEAST WITH THE LOWS INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WEST
AND NORTH OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE LOWS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NOT BE ALL THAT MUCH COOLER,
AS HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE AREA
ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A DRIER AND COLDER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA BEHIND THE TROUGH. WITH THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
TROUGH PASSAGE. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AS AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES
DROP INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE AS A DRIER AIR MASS ADVECTS
INTO THE REGION. HIGHS IN THE 40S WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS LOWS DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S.
THE ENSEMBLE MODELS THEN SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS THE PLANS THIS WEEKEND WITH A MORE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN SETTING UP OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL
WARM BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S AS LOWS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 532 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MARCH ACROSS THE OZARKS, LOCATED JUST EAST
OF THE KSGF/KBBG TAF SITES AT 00Z AND CUTTING THROUGH CENTRAL
MISSOURI AND SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS. LOCATED ALONG THE
COLD FRONT IS A LINE OF HEAVIER RAIN AND SOME RUMBLES OF
THUNDER, WITH SOME TRAILING STRATIFORM RAIN FOLLOWING BEHIND THE
FRONT. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL,
TURNING SHARPLY TO THE SOUTHWEST WHEN YOU CROSS WEST OF THE
FRONT.
THE WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY DUE TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG LOW IN CENTRAL KANSAS, BUT GENERALLY, AFTER
THE COLD FRONT PASSES THE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIE DOWN. THE
CAVEAT TO THAT TREND IS THAT IN THE IMMEDIATE HOUR OR TWO AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, A WAKE LOW HAS BEEN CAUSING WINDS TO VEER
TEMPORARILY BACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BEFORE SETTLING BACK TO
SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH RAPID PRESSURE FALLS
AND RAPID PRESSURE RISES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE OF THE
PRECIPITATION/FRONT.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND CONTINUE VEERING FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AS THE TRAILING STRATIFORM SHOWERS
TAPER OFF TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS, CEILINGS WILL
RISE FROM MVFR TO VFR.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ073-097-101.
MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MOZ055-066>068-
077>080-088>091-093>095-101>103.
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...CAMDEN
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