168
FXUS63 KSGF 191045
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
445 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MAY BRING A FEW SPRINKLES TO
THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
- GUSTY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY MAY LEAD TO
ELEVATED(2 OF 4) TO LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT(3 OF 4) FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO NORMAL AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 113 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND CURRENT CONDITIONS: WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW TWO MAIN FEATURES WE ARE KEYED IN
ON. FIRST IS THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH LIFTED FROM
NEAR EL PASO, TX 24 HOURS AGO TO IT'S CURRENT POSITION IN
NORTHWEST IOWA. THIS SYSTEM BROUGHT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA ON MONDAY. THERE ARE
STILL SOME GUSTY WINDS GOING ON NORTH OF THE AREA, BUT THINGS
HAVE CALMED DOWN OVER OUR CWA. THE SECOND FEATURE IS THE UPPER
LEVEL JET DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO NEW MEXICO SOUTH OF A BROAD AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LOWER IN THE ATMOSPHERE, THE SURFACE LOW WAS
ALSO IN NORTHWEST IOWA WITH GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT THE
SURFACE OVER THE CWA. MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER HAS CLEARED OUT OF
THE AREA WITH MIDNIGHT TEMPERATURES REMAINING MILD IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S, OR NEAR NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TODAY: THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS. WE ARE EXPECTING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE OVER THE
AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW(NORTHWEST) TO UPPER 60S(SOUTHEAST).
TONIGHT: THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK EAST INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXTENDING INTO
OUR NORTHERN CWA AS THE OVERALL UPPER WAVE SLIDES EAST. OVERALL
MOISTURE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AND THE BEST LIFT WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE AREA. THERE IS SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE LIFT MAY
BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME SPRINKLES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WHICH IS
BEING PICKED UP BY SEVERAL OF THE CAMS. WE ARE GOING WITH 30%
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES WITH LESS THAN 15% FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION. BEST CHANCES FOR THIS WILL BE NORTH OF A
PITTSBURG, KS TO SALEM, MO LINE.
WEDNESDAY: COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM,
BUT WE COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AND INCOMING
HIGH PRESSURE. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD DIP INTO THE 30S
WHICH WILL GIVE US SOME ELEVATED(LEVEL 2 OF 4) TO LOCALLY
SIGNIFICANT(LEVEL 3 OF 4) FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE COOLER
AIR WILL START TO WORK INTO THE ARE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
50S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 113 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY: WHILE THE BULK
OF THE COLD CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY,
WE WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR AND SHOULD SEE
OUR TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FROM THE
MIDDLE THROUGH END OF THE WORK WEEK. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 20S
AND 30S DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK INTO MONDAY: A WARMING TREND BACK TO NORMAL AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE COLD
AIR MASS SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND WE SEE RISING UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE ARE SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
POTENTIALLY BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA, WITH THE
EARLIEST POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THE LATER NOT
UNTIL OUTSIDE OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 444 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. WINDS SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LINDENBERG
LONG TERM...LINDENBERG
AVIATION...SORIA
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