627
FXUS63 KSGF 192325
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
525 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- 10-20% CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A SECONDARY UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.
- GUSTY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY MAY LEAD TO ELEVATED
(2 OF 4) TO LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT (3 OF 4) FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO NEAR NORMAL/SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
CURRENT RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTS A DEEP AND DYNAMIC POSITIVELY-
TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATING MUCH OF THE CONUS. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY PAIRED WITH THE RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS TWO MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE BACKGROUND FLOW. ONE OVER MN/WI, CURRENTLY
FORCING THE 985 MB OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW, AND ANOTHER CURRENTLY
EJECTING OFF THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE, A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
MN IS STRETCHED ACROSS MO FROM THE NE CORNER TO THE SW CORNER.
THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH LAST NIGHT, BUT THE COLD
AIR IS LAGGING BEHIND THE SECONDARY FRONT, ALLOWING OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MILD TODAY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.
THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT,
BRINGING LOW TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.
10-20% CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT:
THE SECOND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT BEHIND THE SECONDARY SURFACE COLD FRONT. A
100-110 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION. LEFT EXIT REGION DYNAMICS WITHIN THIS
STRONG JET STREAK WILL PROVIDE RISING MOTION, GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-44. DESPITE THE STRONG RISING MOTION, VERY
LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AS TWO SURFACE COLD FRONTS WILL
HAVE ALREADY MOVED THROUGH. WITH THAT BEING SAID, THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE FOR A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT (10-20% CHANCE). THE
BEST TIMEFRAME WILL BE BETWEEN 8 PM AND 3 AM ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-44 WHERE THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE.
GUSTY WINDS AND DRY AIR MAY LEAD TO FIRE-PROMOTING CONDITIONS:
AFTER THE WAVE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH, THE MID-
AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIP ITS TOES INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA, ALLOWING THE COOLER, DRIER, AND GUSTIER AIR TO FILTER IN
WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S WITH LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
THE DRIER AND GUSTIER AIR WILL ALSO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED TO LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY. A TIGHTENED BACKSIDE PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW AND EDGE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL STRENGTHEN WINDS TO 15-25 MPH. SREF/RAP MOMENTUM TRANSFERS
SUGGEST WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 35-40 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HREF/NBM PROBS ADD CONFIDENCE WITH A 25-45% CHANCE OF
GUSTS GREATER THAN 35 MPH. THE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO PROMOTE
GREATER VERTICAL MIXING, DRYING OUT THE SURFACE TO MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 30-40%. SOME LOCALIZED POCKETS MAY
GET DOWN TO 25%. HREF PROBS GIVE A 30-50% CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED
AREAS TO EXPERIENCE <30% RH. THESE IN COMBINATION WILL PROMOTE
ELEVATED TO SIGNIFICANT FIRE DANGER. THESE ARE JUST OUTSIDE OF
RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA, AND WHILE SOME LOCALIZED AREAS MAY
BREAK THAT THRESHOLD FOR BRIEF PERIODS, RECENT RAINFALL HAS
IMPROVED GROUND CONDITIONS A GREAT DEAL WITH RAWS FUEL STICKS AT
15-25% (<9% IS GENERALLY THE RFW THRESHOLD). THIS SHOULD LIMIT
FIRE DANGER A BIT MORE. THEREFORE, A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
THURSDAY MORNING, A COOL, DRY (CP) AIR MASS WILL HAVE A SECONDARY
SURGE SOUTH TOWARDS OUR AREA BEHIND THE LOW THAT HAS MOSEYED ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THIS POINT. A HAULING LOW-LEVEL JET
(50+KTS) THAT DEVELOPS OVERHEAD THURSDAY WILL KEEP US IN A NORTHWEST
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY. THE JET WILL ACT LIKE COLD AIR ROOM
SERVICE, DECREASING OUR TEMPERATURES UNTIL WE BOTTOM OUT ON SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MOST OF
US, MAYBE REACHING 50F NEAR THE MO/AR BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL COPY
PASTE FROM THURSDAY TO FRIDAY BUT A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER FRIDAY,
WITH LOWS DECREASING FROM THE 30S INTO THE 20S THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. BY SATURDAY, WE WILL SEE LOWS IN THE MID- TO UPPER 20S,
WITH LOWER-LYING TERRAIN POTENTIALLY EVEN A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
AREAS FARTHEST SOUTH HAVE MORE UNCERTAINTY AROUND JUST HOW COOL IT
WILL GET, BUT THE SIGNAL IS VERY STRONG FOR BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, WITH WIDESPREAD 70-95% CHANCES OF <32F ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNING.
THE WEEKEND WILL BRING US BACK INTO A RIDGING PATTERN WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WARMING US BACK UP BEGINNING SATURDAY. DESPITE
SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN EXACTLY HOW MANY DEGREES WE'LL WARM, THE
WARMUP SIGNAL IS EVIDENT, BUT MODEL SPREAD FOR TEMPERATURES
INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE SATURDAY-MONDAY PERIOD. THIS
INDICATES NEAR COMPLETE CERTAINTY FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT NEXT TO NOTHING ELSE IN
REGARDS TO MORE LOCATION- OR TIMING-SPECIFIC DETAILS. ENSEMBLE MEANS
DO NOT REFLECT THEIR INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS WELL AT ALL, SO AS THE
INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS START TO RESOLVE MORE SIMILARLY, MORE DETAILS
WILL BECOME AVAILABLE. THAT SAID, THE RIDGE PUSHING EAST AFTER THE
WEEKEND WOULD MARK OUR BEST CHANCES FOR NEXT PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 524 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD. WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AFTER 12Z,
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20-30 KTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE IS A <15% CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES FOR PRIMARILY
KJLN AND KSGF BETWEEN 04-07Z, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS
AFFECTING CIGS.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PRICE
LONG TERM...CAMDEN
AVIATION...MELTO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page