117
FXUS63 KSGF 201118
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
518 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IN
CENTRAL MISSOURI.
- GUSTY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY MAY LEAD TO ELEVATED
(2 OF 4) TO LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT (3 OF 4) FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO NEAR NORMAL/SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 130 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND CURRENT CONDITIONS: WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AS OF MIDNIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AROUND THE LOW INTO OUR CWA. LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE WAKE
OF THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM WAS KEEPING ONLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
THE AREA, MAINLY FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI NORTHWARD. SOME LIGHT
ECHOES THERE MAY BE PRODUCING SOME SPRINKLES OF LIGHT RAIN AND
WILL CONTINUE THIS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS THE UPPER ENERGY SHIFTS THROUGH. TEMPERATURES HAVE DIPPED
INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S WHICH REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL(MID 30S)
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TODAY: GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY
AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THIS STRONG STORM
SYSTEM CENTERED TO OUR NORTH. 40-50 KT 850MB WINDS WILL HELP TO
DRIVE THE COLDER AIR MASS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF WHICH WE WILL BE
ON THE FAR SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR. THE DRY AIR WITH
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WILL
COMBINE WITH THE GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH TO PRODUCE SOME
ELEVATED(LEVEL 2 OF 4) TO LOCALIZED SIGNIFICANT(LEVEL 3 OF 4)
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY RED FLAG HEADLINES
AT THIS TIME WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL KEEPING THE FUELS A BIT
WETTER. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE COOLER IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
TONIGHT: A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT THE COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
THURSDAY: THEH UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY, BUT WE'LL STILL BE IN THAT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BEHIND THE LOW WHICH WILL KEEP THE COOLER AIR IN PLACE. DESPITE
THE EXPECTED SUNSHINE, OUR HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO
AROUND 50.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 130 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
THE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND
WE WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME MID 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES FOR LOWS
BOTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE
MID 40S TO LOW 50S. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT AWAY
FROM THE AREA AND WE'LL START TO SEE RISING UPPER HEIGHTS ON
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
AN UPPER RIDGE IN THE PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT OVER THE
WEEKEND AND FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL OVER THE CONUS AS A
STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND WE'LL SEE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA
AND POTENTIALLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER OUR EAST
WHERE A BETTER MOISTURE AXIS SETS UP.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK,
MORE UPPER ENERGY WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA AND WE'LL SEE THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE PUSH INTO THE AREA MOST LIKELY OUTSIDE OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD IN THE WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY TIME PERIOD AND
WE'LL SEE AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 517 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO WORK INTO THE AREA BEHIND A STRONG FRONT.
WINDS WILL PICK UP TODAY OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS BY
LATE MORNING IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LINDENBERG
LONG TERM...LINDENBERG
AVIATION...LINDENBERG
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