208
FXUS63 KSGF 211122
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
522 AM CST THU NOV 21 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO NEAR NORMAL/SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST THU NOV 21 2024
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN: WATER VAPOR AND UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS CLEARLY SHOWED A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE WAS
CENTERED ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
MISSOURI OZARKS. THE 00Z KSGF SOUNDING MEASURED NEARLY A DAILY
MINIMUM PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 0.12IN. THIS DRY AIRMASS
HAS PENETRATED ALL THE WAY INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RAOBS
ALONG THE TEXAS COAST SHOWING PW VALUES OF 0.20-0.25IN WITH
CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS.
THE LOWER TROP REMAINS FAIRLY MIXED OVERNIGHT WITH A 50KT
NORTHWESTERLY 850MB JET OVERHEAD. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 15MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 20MPH CONTINUES WHICH IS ACTUALLY
KEEPING TEMPS "WARMER" (LOWER 40S) THAN THEY OTHERWISE WOULD BE
IF WINDS WERE LIGHTER. THE EXCEPTION ARE THE TYPICALLY COLDER
VALLEYS AND WIND PROTECTED AREAS WITH LOCAL PUBLIC OBS SHOWING
SOME TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. VERY LOW DEWPOINTS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S ARE KEEPING RH VALUES IN THE 35-45% RANGE.
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING ACROSS THE
AREA. INSPECTION OF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWS THAT SOME MOMENTUM
TRANSFERS/WIND GUSTS OF 25-35MPH WILL LIKELY OCCUR THIS MORNING
FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 65, CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING
LOW/850MB JET AXIS. WHILE THESE WINDS WONT BE AS STRONG AS
YESTERDAY (MIXING HEIGHTS NOT AS HIGH), THIS WILL KNOCK
APPARENT TEMPS INTO THE 20S-30S THIS MORNING, MAKING IT QUITE
CHILLY. EVEN WITH CLEAR SKIES, 850MB TEMPS IN THE 0-4C RANGE
(THANKS TO CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION) WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE AREA WHICH IS ACTUALLY
BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER. WE HAVE ALSO CONTINUED TO TREND
DRIER WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS (LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S) GIVEN THE
SOURCE REGION TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TOWARDS
THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE THE WINDS AND GIVEN THE CONTINUED DRY AIR, A COLDER
NIGHT IS EXPECTED. LATEST NBM SUPPORTS LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 20S ACROSS THE AREA. THE ONE LIMITING FACTOR IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TO AFFECT THE AREAS NORTHEAST OF
SPRINGFIELD. LATEST HREF HAS RAISED PROBS FOR THESES CLOUDS TO
ENTER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT BEFORE THE UPPER
SYSTEM FULLY DEPARTS. IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW FAR SOUTHWEST
THESE CLOUDS ACTUALLY MAKE IT. THEREFORE COLDEST TEMPS TONIGHT
MAY ACTUALLY BE ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 65.
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESS VALUES ARE EXPECTED AS THE RIDGE OUT WEST BUILDS EAST
TOWARDS THE AREA. AFTER A COLD START, HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS (UPPER 40S)
TOWARDS ROLLA AND THE WARMEST TEMPS (LOW 50S) TOWARDS JOPLIN.
WINDS LOOK TO BE LIGHTER AS WELL WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST THU NOV 21 2024
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ENSEMBLES ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST. WINDS LOOK TO BEGIN TO
TURN SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY AND THE NBM HAS A RELATIVELY SMALL
SPREAD IN HIGH TEMPS OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA WITH EVEN LOW 60S TOWARDS JOPLIN.
ADDITIONAL CHANGES TAKE PLACE SUNDAY AS THE PATTERN BEGINS TO
BECOME SLIGHTLY ZONAL ACROSS THE AREA AS A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN US. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOOKS
TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS NEBRASKA AND IOWA WITH A TRAILING FRONT
ACROSS KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION (GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH) ACROSS THE AREA OUT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO CLIMB ABOVE AVERAGE WITH THE NBM
SHOWING HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S (50-70% CHANCE OF HIGHS
AT LEAST 65 DEGREES). CURRENTLY THE COLD FRONT IS FAVORED TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE DRY AIR ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN US THE SEVERAL DAYS PRECEDING THIS FRONT, WE ARE
SKEPTICAL HOW MUCH MOISTURE THIS FRONT WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH. A
FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SHOWING SOME VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES OR
RAIN FOR AREAS EAST OF SPRINGFIELD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT HOWEVER
CHANCES REMAIN LESS THAN 30% AND THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLES KEEP
THE AREA DRY.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: CURRENTLY THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLES
KEEP THE AREA DRY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS NORTHERLY WINDS RETURN
BEHIND THE MAINLY DRY FRONT. A PREDOMINATELY ZONAL PATTERN IS
FAVORED HOWEVER THERE IS INCREASING VARIANCE WITH THE GUIDANCE
BY WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND AS THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE
HANDLING OF THE PARENT UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SEEM TO BE FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
THIS TROUGH AS IT MOVES EAST. OTHER ENSEMBLES ARE SLOWER AND A
LITTLE STRONGER WHICH HAS IMPLICATIONS ON PRECIP CHANCES AND
TYPES. GIVEN THESE UNCERTAINTIES, NBM PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN
AROUND 20-30% ON WEDNESDAY. THE SLOWER ENSEMBLES WOULD THEN
BRING PRECIP CHANCES TO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY/THANKSGIVING.
ADDITIONAL CHANGES/UPDATES TO THE FORECAST ARE LIKELY AS WE GET
CLOSER.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 520 AM CST THU NOV 21 2024
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
BREEZY TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 20-25KTS LIKELY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY
THIS MORNING WITH DECREASING SPEEDS AND GUSTS FOR THE EVENING.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AT THE SITES THIS
MORNING.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BURCHFIELD
LONG TERM...BURCHFIELD
AVIATION...BURCHFIELD
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