520
FXUS63 KSGF 150806
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
206 AM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10AM FOR PORTIONS OF
SE KS/SW MO AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI,
WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING DOWN TO 1/4 MILE.
- 50-95% CHANCE OF RAIN (LOWEST NW, HIGHEST SE) LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN TRENDING
COOLER.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 204 AM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST
MISSOURI/SOUTHEAST IOWA, WITH THE COLD FRONT NOW EAST OF OUR
AREA. ANY DRIZZLE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE DONE FOR THE EARLY MORNING,
HOWEVER WITH THE AMPLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WE'VE RECEIVED OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS COMBINED WITH THE LIGHT WINDS, DENSE FOG HAS
ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA, DROPPING
VISIBILITIES BELOW A MILE. WE'VE EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR AREAS EITHER ALREADY EXPERIENCING OR ABOUT TO
EXPERIENCE VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1/4 MILE. THIS INCLUDES OUR
SOUTHEAST KANSAS COUNTIES AND PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI, AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA, AND IS
IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM.
OTHERWISE WE'LL GET A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM PRECIPITATION AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S, HOWEVER THESE TEMPERATURES COULD BE AFFECTED BY ANY CLOUD
COVER THAT PERSISTS OVER THE AREA.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EAST OVER THE NORTHERN
CONUS/CANADIAN BORDER, WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING THE
AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND
LASTING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST CHANCES (80-95%)
LOOK TO OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE INTERSTATE-44 CORRIDOR. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 0.50-1.0" RANGE, INCREASING THE FURTHER SOUTHEAST YOU
GO FROM I-44. AREAS OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA WILL
SEE VERY LITTLE RAINFALL (LESS THAN 0.10").
WE'RE NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT, WITH THE BETTER
CHANCES REMAINING OVER EASTERN OK/NW ARKANSAS WHERE THE GREATER
INSTABILITY LIES. IF THE SEVERE THREAT DOES EXTEND INTO OUR
AREA, IT WOULD PRIMARILY BE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 60 FOR MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL, HOWEVER THAT WOULD REQUIRE BETTER LAPSE RATES AND
MORE INSTABILITY THAN WHAT MODELS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING.
REGARDLESS, WE'LL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON HOW THINGS PROGRESS AND
TREND, SO STAY UP TO DATE ON THE LATEST FORECAST.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON
ON MONDAY, THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY, WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 204 AM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
BY TUESDAY MORNING, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO RESIDE
OVER EASTERN MISSOURI, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY OVER THE AREA,
WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES (40-70%) TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THE BEST
CHANCES AGAIN LOOK TO BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI, HOWEVER
THERE'S STILL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SPECIFIC AMOUNTS, TIMING,
AND OVERALL CHANCES.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO
THE AREA, WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE 40S BY THE END OF THE
WEEK, AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CST SAT DEC 14 2024
FOR THE 06Z TAFS, SOME DENSE FOG WAS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND MAY DEVELOP FURTHER EAST INTO THE JLN AREA OVERNIGHT.
HAVE VISIBILITY DROPPING TO A MILE FOR NOW AFTER 08Z. ON SUNDAY
EVENING, STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA WITH MVFR AND
POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ073-097-
101.
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MOZ066-077-
088-096-097-105-106.
SHORT TERM...MELTO
LONG TERM...MELTO
AVIATION...LINDENBERG
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