673
FXUS63 KSGF 161117
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
517 AM CST MON DEC 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE COMMON WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
- A CORRIDOR OF 0.50 TO 1.5 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL IS LIKELY
THROUGH MID MORNING ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 WITH
LOCALIZED AREAS RECEIVING 2.50 INCHES. THIS COULD CAUSE
INCREASED STREAM FLOWS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW WATER
CROSSINGS.
- NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN OCCURS TUESDAY NIGHT (30-60%).HIGHEST
CHANCES SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 44.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN TRENDING TO
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE BELOW 10 PERCENT WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST MON DEC 16 2024
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN: LATEST WATER VAPOR AND
UPPER AIR DATA SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS HAS PLACED OUR REGION IN A BROAD WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALONG WITH BEING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER JET. A 45KT LOW LEVEL JET WAS PARALLEL TO
THE FLOW AND LOCATED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. TWO SEPARATE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS WERE EVIDENT WITH ONE ACROSS WESTERN IOWA AND
ANOTHER ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA. A COLD FRONT WAS CONNECTING THE
TWO AND CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO EASTERN KANSAS. A WARM
FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH THE AREA WITH VERY MILD TEMPS FOR THIS
HOUR IN MID DECEMBER WITH MANY AREAS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR BOTH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS. EVEN HIGHER DEWS (MID/UPPER
60S) REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI. LATEST
ANALYZED PW VALUES WERE AROUND 1.2 INCHES WHICH IS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MID DECEMBER. A CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY, LARGELY
ELEVATED, REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI WITH MU CAPE AROUND
1000-1500J/KG AND ML CAPE IN THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE. EFFECTIVE
BULK WIND DIFFERENCES WERE IN THE 25-35KT RANGE HOWEVER CURRENT
HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST A MOSTLY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPH WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF AREAS ALONG THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS BORDER WHERE
SURFACE WINDS WERE SLIGHTLY MORE BACKED TO THE SOUTHEAST
CREATING MORE LOW LEVEL CURVATURE. A SMALL AREA OF EFFECTIVE SRH
OF 200M2M2 WAS LOCATED ALONG THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS BORDER.
A CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED FROM
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI, GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL
HAS BEEN COMMON WITH MOST STORMS. FURTHER SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
WEST PLAINS/ALTON AREAS, DENSE FOG HAS FORMED WITH VISIBILITIES
AROUND 1/4 MILE AT TIMES IN BETWEEN RAIN SHOWERS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT: THE CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH 7-9AM WITH A
GRADUAL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. GIVEN THE CAPE/SHEAR COMBO, A FEW
STORMS COULD STILL APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO
HALF DOLLARS THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE HAZARD. IF A STORM CAN
BECOME MORE ROOTED IN BOUNDARY LAYER AIR (ALONG THE
MISSOURI/ARKANSAS BORDER AREA), THEN DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN A
BRIEF, SHORT LIVED TORNADO COULD FORM HOWEVER THIS POTENTIAL
REMAINS QUITE LOW AS OF THIS WRITING.
ANOTHER CONCERN THROUGH EARLY/MID MORNING ARE THE RAINFALL
RATES. IN GENERAL, HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 0.25-0.75IN WILL BE
COMMON WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS AND GIVEN THE PARALLEL FLOW,
STORMS WILL BE MOVING OVER THE SAME AREAS UNTIL THE SYSTEM GETS
PUSHED SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE A CORRIDOR OF TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 0.50-1.50 INCHES WILL BE COMMON ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
44. LATEST HREF LPMM DATA SUGGESTS A SMALL CORRIDOR OF AMOUNTS
IN THE 2.00-2.50INCH RANGE ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 60. THIS
WOULD LIKELY CAUSE A FEW INSTANCES OF MINOR FLOODING ALONG WITH
ELEVATED STREAM FLOWS.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY MID/LATE MORNING WITH
CLEARING SKIES BY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN A
DRIER AIRMASS HOWEVER IT IS NOT AN OVERLY COLD AIRMASS WITH
TEMPS LIKELY TO ONLY DROP INTO THE 50S. CLEAR SKIES ARE LIKELY
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.
TUESDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA WITH
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY. A SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EAST
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY AND LATEST HREF DATA
SUGGESTING AN OVERALL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND BUT REMAINING DRY. HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO AGAIN CLIMB
ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BEFORE THE THICKER
CLOUD COVER ARRIVES. IF THE CLOUD COVER ARRIVES SOONER THAN
TEMPS WOULD NEED TO BE REDUCED.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST MON DEC 16 2024
TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY: A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH LOOKS TO
APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIP. MOISTURE
QUALITY IS CURRENTLY IN QUESTION WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH HIGHEST
NBM POPS SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 44 WHERE MOISTURE MAY HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE RETURNING BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE. LATEST NBM DATA
SUGGESTS ONLY A 10% CHANCE OF 0.50IN OF MORE OF RAINFALL AT
SPRINGFIELD WITH THAT INCREASING TO 40% ACROSS THE WEST PLAINS
REGION. HIGHER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY APPEAR TO BE FAVORED
FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH HOWEVER IF THE SYSTEM SLOWS THEN THESE
CHANCES WOULD INCREASE AND SPREAD FURTHER NORTH. THE FRONT DOES
APPEAR TO CLEAR THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BE A COLDER ONE WITH MEAN 850MB TEMPS AROUND 0C BY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD SOUTH.
THURSDAY - SUNDAY: OVERALL, ENSEMBLES ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH RESPECT TO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE THAT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, TEMPS ON
THURSDAY LOOK TO FAVOR THE ABOVE NORMAL SIDE AS A BRIEF RETURN
TO SOUTHERLY FLOW COMMENCES WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. A COLD FRONT
WILL QUICKLY CHANGE THAT BY FRIDAY WITH A GLANCING BLOW OF
COLDER AIR FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST NBM 25TH-75TH
PERCENTILE SPREADS ARE ONLY AROUND 10 DEGREES WHICH LEADS TO
HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPS WILL TAKE A TUMBLE INTO THE 30S-40S
FOR HIGHS FRIDAY-SUNDAY AND LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. THE
EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE EXACT TRACK OF
THAT SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITH FURTHER WEST TRACKS FAVORING COLDER
AIR FOR OUR AREA. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY GIVEN THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH NBM POPS
REMAINING BELOW 10 PERCENT THROUGH SUNDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 454 AM CST MON DEC 16 2024
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
SITES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH A QUICK END BY
16Z. IFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR FOR A PERIOD OF TIME AS WELL THIS
MORNING HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BACK INTO MVFR BY MID MORNING AND THEN VFR BY LATE MORNING.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY HOWEVER
SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN LESS THAN 15KTS.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BURCHFIELD
LONG TERM...BURCHFIELD
AVIATION...BURCHFIELD
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