958
FXUS63 KSGF 162004
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
204 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TUESDAY, THEN THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN OCCURS TUESDAY NIGHT (30-70%). HIGHEST CHANCES
(50-70%) ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A SALEM TO BRANSON LINE.
- SLIGHTLY WARMER ON THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
BELOW 10 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT ALL RAIN HAS EXITED OUR
FORECAST AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A SHORTWAVE
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A TAIL OF MID-
LEVEL DRY AIR SURGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. BENEATH THE WAVE AND TAIL OF DRY AIR, A STRONG
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ALSO MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WITH A LONG TRAILING COLD FRONT STRETCHING ALL THE
WAY THROUGH EAST MO AND INTO AR AND TX. ALL THESE FACTORS WILL
ALLOW DRY WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TUESDAY:
DESPITE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TODAY, THE JET
STREAM AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR
AREA, KEEPING THE COOLER AIR LOCKED TO THE NORTH. THIS, PAIRED
WITH CLEAR SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT, WILL ALLOW HIGHS TODAY TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH MIDDLE 50S TOWARD WEST-CENTRAL MO,
AND MIDDLE 60S ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MO. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ASSOCIATED WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP
HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN
THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN OCCURS TUESDAY NIGHT (30-70% CHANCE):
THE NEXT SYSTEM SETUP ACTUALLY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO SUNDAY
NIGHT'S PROGRESSION, JUST WITHOUT THE SEVERE WEATHER AND
FLOODING. DURING THE EVENING HOURS, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
SURGE IN FROM THE SOUTH, BRINGING LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE WITH IT
ONCE AGAIN. SYNOPTIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING WAVE
WILL THEN SPREAD OVER THE LOW-LEVEL WARM AND MOIST SECTOR,
FORCING SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND SE OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR
(30-50% CHANCE). THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT, INCREASING COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MO.
THEREFORE, THE HIGHEST CHANCES (50-70%) ARE CONFINED TO SE OF A
SALEM TO BRANSON LINE. SOUNDS LIKE AN ODDLY FAMILIAR
PROGRESSION, JUST WITHOUT THE SEVERE AND FLOODING. EVEN THOUGH
SEVERE AND FLOODING CHANCES ARE QUITE LOW, A COUPLE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY THE FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST YOU GO. LATEST SREF GUIDANCE GIVES A 30-50%
CHANCE FOR MUCAPE >100 J/KG, WHICH WOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ON THE CONTRARY, HREF CALIBRATED
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ARE ONLY 10-20% JUST IN OREGON
COUNTY. NEVERTHELESS, IF THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP, SEVERE
WEATHER AND FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
AFTER THE SHOWERS DEPART LATE TUESDAY NIGHT, 700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS COULD
FORCE A QUICK BAND OF SPRINKLES TO MOVE THROUGH INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY MORNING, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE MID 40S. THE RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THUS WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
DIGGING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING WILL BUMP
HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE AGAIN INTO THE LOW 50S.
HOWEVER, THIS RETURN OF WARMER WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. THE
SHORTWAVE'S ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S.
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADS OVER THE REGION, LIFTING TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO
MID 40S. HOWEVER, LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLES DIFFER IN HOW THEY HANDLE
THIS HIGH-PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE ECMWF BUILDS A STRONGER RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE,
AND MOVE THE SURFACE HIGH LESS ACROSS THE AREA MORE SLOWLY.
MEANWHILE, THE GFS BUILDS A WEAKER RIDGE THAT MOVES THE SURFACE
HIGH MORE QUICKLY. THIS ALLOWS SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN SOONER,
RESULTING IN MORE WARM AIR ADVECTION, AND HIGHER TEMPERATURES.
INDEED, CLUSTERING ANALYSIS REVEALS A 9-10 DEGREE TEMPERATURE
SPREAD BETWEEN THE TWO SCENARIOS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
CURRENT FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO
SCENARIOS, LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE WARMER SCENARIO.
OWING TO PREDOMINANTLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE LONG-TERM
PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST MON DEC 16 2024
EARLIER CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FROM THIS MORNING HAVE MOSTLY
CLEARED OUT. AS SUCH, VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND TURN FROM NORTHWESTERLY
TO SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE STRENGTHENING TONIGHT,
WITH KSGF SEEING THE GUSTIEST WINDS.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PRICE
LONG TERM...KENNY
AVIATION...KENNY
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