836
FXUS63 KSGF 171755
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1155 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- THE CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN INCREASES THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA WITH HIGHER CHANCES (40-60%) ACROSS HOWELL, OREGON AND
SHANNON COUNTIES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE 0.10IN OR LESS.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY. MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND INTO
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE BELOW 10 PERCENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN: CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND
UPPER AIR DATA SHOWS A LARGELY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL US WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE
ROCKIES. THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY HAS DRIED OUT
THE ATMOSPHERE WITH MID LEVEL RH AROUND 15%. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WAS CURRENTLY SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 30S.
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY.
THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS WILL REMAIN CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY HOWEVER BY AFTERNOON MID AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HIGHS SHOULD
STILL REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S BEFORE THIS OCCURS HOWEVER
IF CLOUDS ARRIVE SOONER THEN THESE NUMBERS COULD BE SLIGHTLY
LOWER.
BY THE EVENING, LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ALLOW FOR SOME PRECIP
TO FORM ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A
GENERAL LACK OF CLOUD ICE AND GIVEN THE LIFT WE SHOULD SEE SOME
LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT DRIZZLE AT TIMES AS UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS THAT THERE WILL
BE 50-100J/KG OF MU CAPE WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES INSTEAD. LATER IN THE EVENING (AFTER 8-10PM),
A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS TO FORM JUST
SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA (CLOSER TO THE HIGHER MOISTURE). THIS
AREA MAY CLIP HOWELL, OREGON AND SHANNON COUNTIES AND WITH MU
CAPE AROUND 100-250J/KG THERE MAY EVEN BE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO REMAIN 0.10IN OR LESS.
WEDNESDAY: THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CLEAR THE AREA BY SUNRISE IF
NOT BEFORE. A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF SPRINKLES OF DRIZZLE MAY
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE HOWEVER IT WILL USHER IN COOLER
AIR WITH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY.
LATEST HREF DATA STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT LOW STRATUS WILL LINGER
FOR MOST OF THE MORNING AND AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
OZARKS (NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU TYPICALLY MAKES IT
HARD TO ERODE STRATUS IN THE WINTER). THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMPS IN THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH A NORTH WIND MAKING IT
FEEL LIKE THE 30S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
THURSDAY - SUNDAY: OVERALL, ENSEMBLES ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH
RESPECT TO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE THAT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, TEMPS ON
THURSDAY LOOK TO INCREASE BACK ABOVE NORMAL AS A BRIEF RETURN
TO SOUTHERLY FLOW COMMENCES WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. A COLD FRONT
WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN FRIDAY MORNING WITH A GLANCING BLOW OF
COLDER AIR FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST NBM 25TH-75TH
PERCENTILE SPREADS ARE ONLY AROUND 8-10 DEGREES WHICH LEADS TO
HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S
WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20. THE EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR
WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE EXACT TRACK OF THAT SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WITH FURTHER WEST TRACKS (EURO ENSEMBLES) FAVORING COLDER AIR
FOR OUR AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS EITHER IN THE UPPER
30S OR LOWER 40S. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY GIVEN THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH NBM POPS
REMAINING BELOW 10 PERCENT THROUGH SUNDAY.
MONDAY AND BEYOND: CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE WITH RESPECT TO
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE ROCKIES
MONDAY. THIS COULD PROVIDE THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN HOWEVER
CHANCES REMAIN LESS THAN 30%. THERE ARE TWO OVERALL PATTERN
SIGNALS FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. ONE BEING THAT ENSEMBLES ARE
SUGGESTING 850MB TEMPS INCREASING INTO THE 5-10C RANGE FOR MOST
OF NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD RIDGE DEVELOPS/HIGHER MID LEVEL HEIGHTS
ACROSS MOST OF THE US. THIS LEADS TO HIGH CHANCES (>70%) OF
TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY ON INTO CHRISTMAS. FOR
REFERENCE, MIDDLE DECEMBER "NORMAL" HIGH TEMPS ARE IN THE
MIDDLE 40S.
THE OTHER SIGNAL IS WITH PRECIP CHANCES. WITHIN THE BROAD RIDGE,
THERE MAYBE A SYSTEM THAT GETS CUT OFF IN THE FLOW AND REMAIN
IN/NEAR THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN US. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS RANGE
WHERE THAT EXACTLY OCCURS HOWEVER IT WOULD INCREASE RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE AREAS WHERE THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. THE
LATEST HAZARDS OUTLOOK FROM CPC SUGGESTS A 20-40% CHANCE OF
HEAVY PRECIPITATION/RAINFALL SOMEWHERE EITHER NEAR OR JUST SOUTH
OF OUR AREA DURING THE DECEMBER 24-27 TIMEFRAME. SOMETHING TO
KEEP AN EYE ON FOR NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
A SYSTEM BRINGS LIGHT RAIN CHANCES WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE
THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 1500 TO 2500
FEET. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR LIGHT DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED
OUT, THOUGH COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED AND THUS NOT
BEING REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT TAFS. AS WE APPROACH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD, IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS OVERSPREAD THE AREA, WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG AS WINDS BECOME LIGHTER AND TURN MORE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. REDUCED CEILINGS AROUND 300 TO
900 FEET, WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO AROUND 4 TO 6 MILES. THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE CLEARS THE TAF SITES INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, WITH WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST. CEILINGS MAY BE SLOW TO RECOVER WITH GRADUAL CLEARING
OF CLOUDS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BURCHFIELD
LONG TERM...BURCHFIELD
AVIATION...PEREZ
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