058
FXUS63 KSGF 180504
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1104 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- THE CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN INCREASES THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MOST AREAS SEE 20-30% CHANCES, WITH HIGHER
CHANCES FURTHER SOUTHEAST (40-60%). RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
0.10 INCHES OR LESS.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY. MUCH
COOLER ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES (BELOW 10%) WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW:
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS REVEAL PREDOMINANTLY
ZONAL UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS SITUATED JUST EAST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. AT THE
SURFACE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES SLIDING EAST, RESULTING
IN SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. MEANWHILE A LOCAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SITS TO THE WEST IN COLORADO, KANSAS AND NEBRASKA. THE COLD
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY HAS BECOME STATIONARY OVER
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. LOW CLOUDS FROM SOUTHERN ARKANSAS ARE
SPREADING NORTHWARD, RESULTING IN CLOUDY SKIES. DESPITE THE
CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 50S, DUE TO
WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI.
TODAY AND TONIGHT: LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ARKANSAS WILL SPREAD
GRADUALLY NORTHWARD THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE COMBINATION OF THIS MOISTURE, WARM AIR ADVECTION, AND
SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THIS LATE AFTERNOON. GREATER RAIN COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WITH THE MOST
CONCENTRATED SHOWERS TO OUR SOUTHEAST, WHICH MAY CLIP SOME OF OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES (HOWELL, SHANNON, AND OREGON COUNTIES),
WHERE THE MOST INSTABILITY IS LOCATED (100-250 J/KG OF MUCAPE).
SOME OF THESE AREAS MAY EVEN SEE AN ISOLATED STRAY
THUNDERSTORM. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE MINIMAL, WITH
MOST AREAS SEEING LESS THAN 0.1 INCHES. THERE'S ALSO A
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS.
WEDNESDAY: THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PASSED COMPLETELY THROUGH THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, BRINGING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WITH IT. COLD
AIR ADVECTION FROM THESE WINDS IN CONJUNCTION WITH ROBUST LOW-LEVEL
CLOUD COVER AS INDICATED BY THE HREF WILL LOWER HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP
BELOW FREEZING INTO THE UPPER 20S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
LONG-TERM: THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: SLIGHTLY WARMER ON THURSDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS EAST, SIGNALING A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. HIGHS REACH INTO THE LOW 50S. HOWEVER,
THIS WARMING IS SHORT-LIVED, AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OUT WEST DIGS
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE'S ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, DROPPING LOWS INTO THE MID 20S. GIVEN THE
PREDOMINANTLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND RELATIVE LACK OF MOISTURE,
POPS ARE CONSISTENTLY LOW, BELOW 10%.
SATURDAY AND BEYOND: GENERAL WARMING TREND SATURDAY-MONDAY, WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR (44-47 DEGREES). PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THIS
TIME PERIOD REMAIN SIMILARLY LOW. THE NEXT SIGNAL FOR
PRECIPITATION COMES WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE ON LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER, PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE STILL
30% AND BELOW. EVEN LATER ON, MOST ENSEMBLES DEVELOP A CUT-OFF
LOW TO OUR WEST, WHICH COULD AUGMENT OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FROM DECEMBER 24-27, THOUGH PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO SAY
ANYTHING DEFINITE YET. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS KEYED
IN ON THIS SIGNAL, FORECASTING A SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
CIGS ARE CURRENTLY MVFR/IFR ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE
SURGING IN FROM THE SOUTH. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN DETECTED NEAR
BBG, HAVE ADDED -TSRA FOR THE NEXT HOUR UNTIL 06Z. PATCHY FOG
MAY OCCUR TONIGHT AND CIGS MAY REACH LIFR. CONFIDENCE WAS TOO
LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. LASTLY, WINDS WILL
INITIALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH BEFORE VEERING TO NORTHERLY BY 12Z.
SPEEDS WILL BE AT 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS AT
TIMES, EXCEPT DURING THE FROPA BETWEEN 02-09Z.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KENNY
LONG TERM...KENNY
AVIATION...SORIA
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