393
FXUS63 KSGF 181733
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1133 AM CST WED DEC 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- COLDER TODAY THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY. MUCH
COLDER FRIDAY WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
FRIDAY MORNING.
- LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES (BELOW 10%) THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST WED DEC 18 2024
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN: WATER VAPOR AND UPPER
AIR DATA SHOWS A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH IOWA, NORTHERN MISSOURI AND KANSAS. A SURFACE LOW AND
COLD FRONT WAS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE AREA AND WAS JUST WEST
OF SPRINGFIELD. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAINED ACROSS HOWELL, OREGON AND
SHANNON COUNTIES HOWEVER IT WAS SLOWLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE
REGION. A LACK OF CLOUD ICE AND LIFT OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU HAS
CREATED SOME DRIZZLE NEAR SPRINGFIELD.
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT AS THE FRONT MOVES
FURTHER INTO THE AREA. PATCHY DRIZZLE AND LIGHT FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPS BEHIND THE
FRONT WERE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AND THIS WILL FILTER
INTO THE AREA BY SUNRISE.
THERE IS A BREAK/SMALL AREA OF CLEARING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT. HOWEVER, A LARGE AREA OF LOW STRATUS WAS LOCATED FURTHER
NORTH ACROSS NEBRASKA AND IOWA, CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE. THIS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING.
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING BEHIND
THE FRONT. NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE PLATEAU, ALONG WITH A LOW SUN
ANGLE WILL LIKELY ACT TO KEEP STRATUS LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AND WE HAVE GONE WITH A LITTLE COLDER SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
FOR AFTERNOON TEMPS. THIS EQUATES TO A SMALL RISE IN TEMPS
THROUGH THE DAY WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
40S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10-15MPH AND GUSTS TO 25MPH WILL
MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE 30S.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS AND SMALL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. LIMITING FACTORS/UNCERTAINTIES ARE WITH WINDS AND
CLOUD COVER. IF LOW CLOUDS REMAIN LONGER INTO THE EVENING THIS
COULD LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL UNLESS ITS ABLE TO BUILD DOWN.
SURFACE WINDS BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHERLY BY THURSDAY MORNING WHICH
COULD INCREASE MIXING AND LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL. A LOOK AT A FEW
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DOES SHOW FOG POTENTIAL IF WE CAN CLEAR OUT
SUFFICIENTLY, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44. LATEST HREF
HAS A HIGH SPREAD IN POTENTIAL VIS, LIKELY DUE TO SOME MODELS
DEVELOPING WIDESPREAD FOG AND OTHERS DEVELOPING NO FOG. THE MEAN
OF THE DATA DOES SHOW SMALL POCKETS OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA
(PATCHY) WITH A 30-50% CHANCE OF VIS LESS THAN ONE MILE.
WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FOG POTENTIAL FOR A FEW REASONS:
ONE BEING THE OBVIOUSLY POTENTIAL FOR A REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY.
THE OTHER BEING TEMPERATURES LIKELY GOING BELOW FREEZING IN THE
NIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO FREEZING FOG. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ON THIS FOG POTENTIAL AND ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE LIKELY.
THURSDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA WITH A
RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND SOUTHWEST 850MB
WINDS WHICH WILL BRING WARMER AIR IN. THIS IS ALL IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST WED DEC 18 2024
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND: A COLD FRONT WITH MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN VERY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING,
LIKELY BEFORE SUNRISE. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR WITH
TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 20S DURING THE MORNING. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS LOOK TO DROP WIND CHILLS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS THROUGH THE MORNING.
LATEST NBM 25TH-75TH PERCENTILE TEMP SPREADS CONTINUE TO BE
SMALL (6-8 DEGREES) WHICH LEADS TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPS
ON FRIDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO
AROUND 20 FRIDAY NIGHT. ENSEMBLES ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP DOWN THE FLOW ON SATURDAY. THEREFORE
HIGHS ON SATURDAY, WHILE WARMER THAN FRIDAY, MAY REMAIN IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S. WE BEGIN TO SEE RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS
AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL BRING HIGHS BACK TO
AVERAGE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL REMAIN DRY GIVEN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH NBM POPS REMAINING BELOW 10
PERCENT THROUGH SUNDAY.
MONDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK: CONFIDENCE STILL REMAINS LOW WITH
RESPECT TO ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE
ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY. THIS COULD
PROVIDE THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AS IT SENDS A FRONT INTO THE
AREA, HOWEVER CHANCES REMAIN AROUND 30% OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ARE A FEW ENSEMBLE CLUSTER
SCENARIOS THAT WOULD SUGGEST HIGHER RAIN CHANCES BY TUESDAY
WITH A STRONGER DIGGING SHORTWAVE JUST WEST OF THE AREA. WILL
MONITOR THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM AS WE GET CLOSER.
THERE REMAINS TWO OVERALL PATTERN SIGNALS FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK. ONE BEING THAT ENSEMBLES ARE SUGGESTING 850MB TEMPS
INCREASING INTO THE 5-10C RANGE FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGHER
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE US. THIS LEADS TO
HIGH CHANCES (>80%) OF TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. FOR REFERENCE, MIDDLE DECEMBER
"NORMAL" HIGH TEMPS ARE IN THE MIDDLE 40S. NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT OUR HIGH TEMPS COULD EASILY BE 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
(50S).
THE OTHER SIGNAL IS WITH PRECIP CHANCES. WITHIN THIS PATTERN, THERE
MAYBE A SYSTEM OR TWO THAT GETS CUT OFF IN THE FLOW AND REMAIN
IN/NEAR THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN US (THE FIRST ONE OF THESE PERHAPS
BEING THE TUESDAY SYSTEM). CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS RANGE
WHERE THAT EXACTLY OCCURS HOWEVER IT WOULD INCREASE RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE AREAS WHERE THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. THE LATEST
HAZARDS OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST A 20-40% CHANCE OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION/RAINFALL
SOMEWHERE EITHER NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA DURING THE MID
TO LATE WEEK TIMEFRAME. ADDITIONAL SUPPORTING EVIDENCE IS IN THE
CIPS ANALOGS. WHILE THIS IS BASED OFF GEFS MEMBERS, IT DOES SHOW
A SIGNAL FOR INCREASED RAIN CHANCES (ALONG WITH 10-15 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS) DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST WED DEC 18 2024
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES. AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES, LOW CLOUDS FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI WILL
BEGIN TO ENCROACH KSGF AND KJLN, LOWERING CEILINGS TO NEAR MVFR
LEVELS. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. WINDS GRADUALLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SOME
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, THOUGH PROBABILITY WAS TOO
LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. THE LIKELIEST SITE TO
SEE FOG IS KBBG.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BURCHFIELD
LONG TERM...BURCHFIELD
AVIATION...KENNY
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