282
FXUS63 KSGF 190459
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1059 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- COLDER TODAY, WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY, BEFORE MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES RETURN FRIDAY. WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS FRIDAY MORNING.
- PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT, WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR
FREEZING FOG
- LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES (BELOW 10%) THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEAL A POSITIVELY-TITLED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. THE COLD FRONT
THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN THE MORNING NOW SITS BY
MISSISSIPPI, ARKANSAS, AND LOUISIANA. HIGHER PRESSURE SITS TO
THE WEST OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AND COLORADO. A GROUP OF STRATUS
CLOUDS FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI AND WESTERN KANSAS ARE MOVING DOWN
TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI, THOUGH DECREASING IN SPATIAL COVERAGE. AS
SUCH, CLOUD COVERAGE IS LOWER THAN ANTICIPATED, ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TODAY TO CLIMB A BIT HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST, REACHING THE MID TO HIGH 40S.
TONIGHT: AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST MOVES EAST, WINDS
DIE DOWN, AND TURN MORE SOUTHERLY. LOWS FALL TO THE UPPER 20S AND
LOW 30S. GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND SMALL DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS, CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-44. HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOME
COMPLICATING FACTORS TO THIS FORECAST. THE AMOUNT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT
DEPENDS ON WHEN CLOUDS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING (EARLIER DISSIPATION
RESULTING IN GREATER FOG POTENTIAL), AND WHEN WINDS CHANGE
DIRECTION AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS EAST. THERE IS A WIDE SPREAD
IN POTENTIAL VISIBILITIES TONIGHT, BOTH BETWEEN ENSEMBLES AND
WITHIN ENSEMBLES. FOR EXAMPLE, THE HREF GIVES PATCHES OF 30-50%
CHANCES FOR VISIBILITIES LESS THAN A MILE, PREDOMINANTLY SOUTH
OF I-44, WHILE THE NBM IS MUCH MORE BEARISH, NOT GIVING A CHANCE
GREATER THAN 10% FOR VISIBILITIES UNDER A MILE.
GIVEN THAT TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT, FREEZING FOG IS
A POSSIBILITY, WHERE FOG IS MORE DENSE, ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT
LIKELY AT THIS TIME. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FOG
POTENTIAL TONIGHT.
THURSDAY: COINCIDENT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST,
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AT THE SURFACE AND
SOUTHWESTERLY UP TO 850 MB. THIS ADVECTS SOME WARM AIR INTO THE
AREA, AND WHEN COMBINED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, SHOULD ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOW 50S. THE RETURN OF HIGHER TEMPERATURES
IS SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER, AS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LOW'S FALL TO THE 20S, WITH GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BRINGING WIND CHILLS IN SOME AREAS TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: HIGHS ONLY HIT THE MID 30S FRIDAY AS
NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOLLOWS ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS SATURDAY REACHING THE LOW 40S, UP TO
THE MID TO HIGH 40S ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.
PRECIPITATION REMAINS HIGHLY UNLIKELY THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS WE
REMAIN IN A PREDOMINANTLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME ALOFT, WITH
POPS CONSISTENTLY BELOW 10%.
MONDAY AND BEYOND: THE GRADUAL WARMING TREND CONTINUES MONDAY AND
THEREAFTER, WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 50S. GREEN CHRISTMAS LOVERS
REJOICE AS THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER GIVES A 70-80% CHANCE OF
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THE 23-27. PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN
ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROLLS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS,
AND CHANCES HAVE INCREASED SINCE LAST FORECAST, WITH WIDESPREAD 30-
50% RAIN CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES ON TUESDAY (30-60%), AS ENSEMBLES CUT OFF A LOW FROM UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW, WHICH WOULD ALLOW IT TO STAY OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN U.S. FOR LONGER, THOUGH PREDICTABILITY IS STILL LOW AT THIS
TIME. DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER GIVES A
SLIGHT RISK (20-40%) OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION EITHER NEAR OR JUST
SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
TONIGHT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT THAT MAY
LOWER CEILINGS TO MVFR/IFR. WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW AND BECOME BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON GUSTING UP TO 20
KNOTS AT TIMES.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KENNY
LONG TERM...KENNY
AVIATION...SORIA
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