361
FXUS63 KSGF 191724
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1124 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING.
- WARMER AND BREEZY TODAY. TURNING COLDER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
- WARMING TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES START MONDAY(25-35%) AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT(20-40%). THE BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY(40-70%).
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 140 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND CURRENT CONDITIONS: WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
WEST COAST WHICH WAS BRINGING A LARGE AREA OF NORTHWEST FLOW OUT
OF ALBERTA INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS
LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WAS SHIFTING SOUTHEAST. AT
THE SURFACE, A LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER THE
DAKOTAS AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, ALSO SHIFTING SOUTHEAST. OVER
THE OZARKS, HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT INTO THE AREA BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT PUSH ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. 00Z SOUNDING
AT SGF SHOWS PRETTY DRY AIRMASS, HOWEVER SOME BOUNDARY LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE SOME PATCHY AREAS OF FOG DURING THE CURRENT
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ACROSS
THE AREA.
ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. TODAY WILL
FEATURE THE APPROACH OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGHS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL START BRINGING
THAT COLDER CANADIAN AIR MASS INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE FOR ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 20S.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE COLD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE COLD AIR MASS MOVES
OVER THE AREA. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 30S WITH
HIGHS FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 140 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE DRY
WITH A WARMING TREND. WHILE INITIALLY COLD ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS FROM THE TEENS TO LOW 20S, BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND OUR
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S AND LOWS FROM THE UPPER
20S TO NEAR 40 AS THAT UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND
INTO THE PLAINS.
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC WILL THEN
BEGIN TO APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA NEXT WEEK. MONDAY
AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BE WET WITH RAIN AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN TOO
WARM FOR ANYTHING FREEZING OR FROZEN AT THIS TIME. FOR THOSE
WANTING A WHITE CHRISTMAS, IT DOESN'T LOOK VERY PROMISING FOR
THE OZARKS REGION. THE EXACT TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVES IS STILL
DIFFERING WITHIN THE ENSEMBLES OF THE GEFS/ENS/GEPS, HOWEVER IT
LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH LINGERING RAIN CHANCES INTO CHRISTMAS EVE AND
POSSIBLY CHRISTMAS MORNING IN THE EAST. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE CWA.
THE 8 TO 4 DAY OUTLOOK WHICH GOES FROM CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH NEW
YEARS DAY SHOWS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR CONTINUING THE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND A WEAKER SIGNAL FOR ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME
GUSTY TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LINDENBERG
LONG TERM...LINDENBERG
AVIATION...TITUS
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