704
FXUS63 KSGF 201128
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
528 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- MORNING WIND CHILLS TODAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WITH
A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND.
- WARMING TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES LATE MONDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS AS SEVERAL WAVES OF
ENERGY MOVE THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO
KEEP AWAY ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 143 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND CURRENT CONDITIONS: WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN OVER
THE CONUS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA
INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. HIGH
AMPLITUDE FLOW OUT OF ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO THE
PLAINS AND UPPER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS HAS BROUGHT A COLD
FRONT THROUGH ABOUT HALF THE AREA AS OF MIDNIGHT AND WE SHOULD
SEE GUSTY WINDS AND DROPPING TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS BEHIND THE
FRONT. TEMPERATURES WERE RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE FAR
NORTHERN CWA TO THE MID 40S IN THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.
THROUGH TODAY: THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EAST AND WE'LL REMAIN IN THAT STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
CANADIAN COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS. DESPITE THE EXPECTED
SUNSHINE TODAY, COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL WIN OUT WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING IN THE 30S AND MORNING WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS AS NORTHERLY WIND WILL GUSTY UP TO 30 MPH AT
TIMES.
TONIGHT: WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER
THE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND WE SHOULD SEE A CLEAR SKY THAT WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE LOW 20S. SOME TEENS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE LOW LYING AREAS.
SATURDAY: WE SHOULD SEE RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MORNING, HOWEVER A
DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND WE'LL SEE
SOME SOUTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP. SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED AND
WE SHOULD SEE THE BEGINNING OF A WARM-UP TAKE SHAPE. HIGHS
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 143 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
REST OF THE WEEKEND: AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN OUT THE UPPER RIDGING AND WILL
SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. STRONGER LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND A
SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
RISE BACK INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S FOR HIGHS.
ACTIVE PERIOD FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEK: THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST AND WELL TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA, HOWEVER A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL THEN BECOME MORE
STATIONARY FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA. MEANWHILE, A
SECONDARY UPPER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP A TROUGH TO OUR
WEST ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY CLOSING OFF
A LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE SHOULD
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FOR LOW END
RAIN CHANCES LATE MONDAY, WITH MUCH BETTER RAIN CHANCES(40-70%)
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MODELS SEEM PRETTY MUCH IN LINE
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THIS OVERALL SCENARIO. TEMPERATURES LOOK
WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
BEGIN TO EXIT TO THE EAST ON CHRISTMAS MORNING, HOWEVER MODELS
ARE SHOWING ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES ON
CHRISTMAS THAT WILL START TO BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN LESS AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM,
BUT TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN FOR WHEN IT
DOES BEGIN TO PRECIPITATE.
OUTLOOK FOR THE DEC 27 - JAN 2 TIMEFRAME: THERE IS STILL A
STRONG SIGNAL FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A LESSER
SIGNAL FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR ARE FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S, LOWS IN THE MID 20S
AND PRECIPITATION TOTALS IN THE 0.52 -0.63".
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
FOR THE 12Z TAFS, WESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS DECK NEAR SGF WAS
CYCLING AROUND THE LOW CENTERED OVER INDIANA AS OF 5 AM.
CEILINGS AROUND 3000-3500 FEET WERE OCCURING AT SGF WITH THIS
STRATUS DECK AND SHOULD LINGER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND THE STRATUS SHOULD END THIS
MORNING WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY
EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THIS EVENING
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LINDENBERG
LONG TERM...LINDENBERG
AVIATION...LINDENBERG
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