342
FXUS63 KSGF 202030
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
230 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TREND THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE
50S (5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RAIN CHANCES (40-70%) ALONG AND SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 44 MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. NO SEVERE
WEATHER OR FLOODING EXPECTED.
- ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES(10-30%) LINGER ON CHRISTMAS DAY
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
TODAY-TONIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE SOUTH
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH BREEZY AND COLD
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. HIGHS HAVE STRUGGLED TO BREAK THE MIDDLE
30S. MEANWHILE, BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 MPH HAVE
KEPT WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS TO 20S. WINDS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SETTLES
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. A CLEAR NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO LOWS IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S AREAWIDE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
SATURDAY-SUNDAY: THE COLDER WEATHER ON FRIDAY WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND. THIS WILL
BE THE RESULT OF SUBTLE RIDGING TO OUR WEST INDUCING MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT RISES. A GRADUAL REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ON SATURDAY REACH INTO THE UPPER 30S
(NORTH) TO LOWER/MIDDLE 40S (SOUTH). BY SUNDAY, BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS CONTINUE TO FUNNEL IN A WARMER AIRMASS, WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S. CHILLY MORNINGS WILL STILL
ACCOMPANY THE WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY,
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND BEFORE
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN BUILDS INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEK.
MONDAY-THURSDAY: A PATTERN CHANGE IS ON THE HORIZON AS WE
PROGRESS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS. AHEAD OF THE
WAVES OF ENERGY, STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT 850MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 TO 8 C. THIS CORRELATES TO HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
AREA EXPECTED. THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD COME LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HIGHS PUSHING UPPER 50S,
TO NEAR 60. WHILE THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A RECORD BREAKING
STRETCH OF MILD TEMPERATURES, IT IS WORTH MENTIONING HIGHS WILL
BE ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE DECEMBER.
TURNING TO RAIN CHANCES, THE INITIAL EARLY WEEK RAIN CHANCES
OVERSPREAD THE AREA MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THERE
REMAINS SUBTLE DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE ENSEMBLES ON THE EXACT
TIMING AND AREA OF HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES. THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO AT THIS TIME IS FOR THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES (40-70%)
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST LITTLE
TO NO INSTABILITY NUDGING INTO THE AREA, THUS KEEPING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES VERY LOW (<10%). NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE AREA AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONALLY, ANY THREAT
FOR FLOODING WOULD REMAIN LOW GIVEN THE LACK OF CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS AND A LONGER PERIOD OF RAINFALL (24 TO 36 HOURS).
CURRENTLY, A LONG AT THE ENTIRE SUITE OF ENSEMBLES (ENS, GEFS,
AND GEPS) DEPICTS THE FOLLOWING PROBABILITIES OF SPECIFIC
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI.
PROBABILITY > 0.25 INCH: 60-80%
PROBABILITY > 0.50 INCH: 40-60%
PROBABILITY > 1.00 INCH: 10-30%
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE CURRENTLY FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI, THOUGH SHOULD BE REITERATED THAT WIDESPREAD FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
BY MID-WEEK, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE ACROSS THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGEST RAIN CHANCES (10-30%)
LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WHILE OTHERS
CLEAR RAIN FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. NONETHELESS, WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY AND
BEYOND INTO LATE NEXT WEEK, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON THE
EXTENT AND COVERAGE OF RAIN CHANCES. THERE WILL BE SOME PERIODS
OF DRY TIME, THOUGH SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED. GIVEN THE MILD
TEMPERATURES, NO SNOW OR ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED
THIS CHRISTMAS. THE CPC HIGHLIGHTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF DECEMBER INTO EARLY
JANUARY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
SUBSIDE THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PEREZ
LONG TERM...PEREZ
AVIATION...PEREZ
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