294
FXUS63 KSGF 141726
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1126 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- OVERNIGHT REFREEZING AND BLACK ICE CONCERNS FOR THE MORNING
COMMUTE CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGHS REACH INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
- A 20-50% CHANCE OF RAIN ON FRIDAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 65. NO WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
THIS MORNING-TONIGHT: A COLD START THIS MORNING WITH LOWS
VARYING FROM MIDDLE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE SINGLE DIGITS. MEANWHILE, A COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM REMAINS MOISTURE
STARVED AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. FURTHER
SUPPORT FROM THE KSGF 00 UTC SOUNDING HIGHLIGHTS SUBSTANTIAL
DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN. NONETHELESS, WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY BEHIND THE DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL VARY FROM LOWER/MIDDLE 30S (NORTH) TO UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S
(SOUTH). WITH PARTS OF THE AREA EXPECTED TO GET ABOVE FREEZING,
ADDITIONAL MELTING OF A LINGERING SNOWPACK WILL CONTINUE TO
OCCUR. SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS, SOME REFREEZING MAY OCCUR ON
WET ROADWAYS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOWS DIP TO
AROUND 10 TO 20 DEGREES.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
WITH SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK,
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST OF THE WESTERN
CONUS. THIS WILL SUPPORT AN AREAWIDE WARMING TREND ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. AS SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS INCREASE, TEMPERATURES
REACH INTO MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 850MB TEMPERATURES
REACH TO AROUND 4 TO 6 C, CORRELATING TO MAXIMUM SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50. A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI MAY CLIMB ABOVE
50. THE NBM HIGHLIGHTS 30-50% PROBABILITIES TO EXCEED 50 DEGREES
FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 60.
BY FRIDAY, A TROUGH EJECTS OUT OF DESERT SOUTHWEST. AHEAD OF
THIS TROUGH, ADDITIONAL WARMING IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S. NBM HIGHLIGHTS 60-90% PROBABILITIES TO EXCEED 50
DEGREES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONALLY, SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOME GUSTY AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THIS KEEPS THE AREA ON THE WESTERN
GRADIENT OF RAINFALL CHANCES ON FRIDAY, WITH 20-50% POPS BEING
ADVERTISED ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 65. GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY
INSTABILITY, NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. ADDITIONALLY, NO
WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS THE COLDER AIR LAGS BEHIND
THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD LIKELY BE
LIGHT IN NATURE, WITH NBM PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN A 0.25
INCH AROUND 15-25%. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST AS WE PIN
DOWN AMOUNTS AND TIMING FOR RAIN CHANCES OVER THE COMING DAYS.
SATURDAY-TUESDAY: AS RAIN CHANCES SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT, A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO USHER IN A COLDER AIRMASS TO THE
REGION. WHILE SATURDAY SEES HIGHS ONLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S/NEAR 40, A MUCH STRONGER SURGE
OF COLD AIR SINKS SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
THE INTRUSION OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK IS WELL CAPTURED BY FIVE WAVE CHARTS DEPICTING CROSS
POLAR FLOW. THIS WILL SUPPORT A SURGE OF ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR,
AS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF EXTREME FORECAST INDEX (EFI)
SIGNAL. TO ADD CONTEXT TO THIS SURGE OF COLD AIR, 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH TO -16 TO -20 C, OR NEAR
MINIMUMS (< 1ST PERCENTILE) OF 30-YEAR CLIMATOLOGY. ENSEMBLES
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES RANGING FROM
15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL (FOR MID TO LATE JANUARY). THIS
WILL SUPPORT DAILY HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FURTHERMORE, WIND CHILLS
DIP TO BELOW ZERO DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING TIME
PERIODS.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY LOW ON ANY SYSTEMS TRAVERSING THROUGH
OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT GIVEN SOME DIVERGING MODEL
SOLUTIONS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE, IT WILL BE WORTH MONITORING.
NONETHELESS, NOW IS THE TIME TO PREPARE FOR THE NEXT SURGE OF
COLD AIR AS CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN ITS OCCURRENCE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS REMAIN GUSTY UP TO 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING A BRIEF MOMENT OF
MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 20Z. SKIES RETURN TO MOSTLY VFR AFTER 00Z
AND WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY OCCUR OVER BBG
OVERNIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND BRING CEILINGS BACK TO
MVFR OVER FAR SOUTHERN MO.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PEREZ
LONG TERM...PEREZ
AVIATION...SORIA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page