485
FXUS63 KSGF 150848
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
241 AM CST WED JAN 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGHS REACH INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
- A 40-70% CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT FOR AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 65. LITTLE IF ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND
TWENTIES AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THIS WILL LIKELY
CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 AM CST WED JAN 15 2025
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN: THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WAS CHARACTERIZED BY AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT
STRETCHED FROM THE GREAT LAKES, BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
IOWA/NEBRASKA AND COLORADO. A CLASSIC "HIGH OVER LOW" BLOCKING
PATTERN WAS OCCURING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI HOWEVER THE WEAK LIFT FROM EARLIER HAS DIMINISHED WITH
NO ADDITIONAL SNOW BEING REPORTED. A COLD FRONT HAS NOW MOVED
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH IOWA.
THIS IS ALLOWING FOR COLDER TEMPS TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA UNDER NORTH WINDS. EARLY MORNING TEMPS ARE IN
THE TEENS NORTH OF SPRINGFIELD TO AROUND FREEZING ALONG THE
MISSOURI/ARKANSAS BORDER.
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
SLIDE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY WITH WINDS GRADUALLY
TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND THEN TO THE
SOUTHWEST BY EVENING. SOUNDINGS AND HIGH RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
AN OVERALL DECREASE IN THE CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO YESTERDAY'S
READINGS (-2 TO -4C) THEREFORE HIGHS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE/UPPER 30S NORTH AND EAST OF SPRINGFIELD TO THE LOWER 40S
FROM SPRINGFIELD AND POINTS SOUTH AND WEST. ANOTHER DAY OF
MELTING SNOW IS LIKELY FOR THOSE THAT STILL HAVE A SNOW DEPTH.
WINDS LOOK TO LARGELY REMAIN WESTERLY TONIGHT WITH NBM DATA
SUGGESTING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE
AREA. RISING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING INTO
THE 0-4C RANGE WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES
ON THURSDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 40S.
LOCATIONS FROM JOPLIN TO PINEVILLE WILL LIKELY BE PUSHING 50
DEGREES.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 AM CST WED JAN 15 2025
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
"HIGH OVER LOW" BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BREAK WITH THE UPPER LOW
EJECTING OUT INTO THE SOUTHWEST US ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL BE INCREASING AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. MEAN 850MB TEMPS IN THE 6-8C RANGE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
PER CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY. THIS IS SUPPORTED AS WELL BY THE
LATEST NBM GUIDANCE. THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPS
WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. REGARDLESS, THE
WARMEST DAY SINCE LATE DECEMBER IS LOOKING LIKELY ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY.
ENSEMBLES ARE DECENT AGREEMENT THAT INCREASING LIFT AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIP CHANCES AS EARLY AS
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER MORE LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO THE PRECEDING DAYS MAY TEMPER MOISTURE RETURN/QUALITY
UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS JUST EAST OF THE AREA. THEREFORE RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 AND ESPECIALLY JUST EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI FRIDAY NIGHT.
LATEST NBM GUIDANCE HAS ABOUT A 20%-30% CHANCE OF GREATER THAN
0.25IN OF RAINFALL FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 65.
THEREFORE LOW QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND IT. THE
BULK OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BEFORE THE COLD
AIR ARRIVES HOWEVER THERE IS CURRENTLY A 20-30% CHANCE OF A FEW
SNOW FLURRIES OR RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR A VERY BRIEF PERIOD EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE STRONG ON SATURDAY WITH
850MB TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE -8 TO -12C RANGE. THIS WILL LIKELY
KNOCK HIGH TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BE
THE BEGINNING/LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC BLAST COMING INTO THE
REGION.
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK: AN IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR
IS SET TO DIVE SOUTH INTO MUCH OF THE US DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS IN THE 500MB,700MB,850MB LAYERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS COULD BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE AND NEAR
THE 30 YEAR REFORECAST MINIMUMS (PER LATEST NAEFS, GEFS AND ENS
TABLES). MEAN 850MB TEMPS ACROSS OUR AREA ON SUNDAY COULD BE IN
THE -16C TO -20C RANGE WHICH IS LESS THAN THE 10TH PERCENTILE
AND WOULD RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE TEENS OR TWENTIES. THE COLDEST
OF THE CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE ON/AROUND MONDAY AS WHAT COULD BE
A 1050MB+ SURFACE HIGH (ALSO VERY STRONG COMPARED TO
CLIMATOLOGY) THAT LOOKS TO SLIDE FROM MONTANA INTO THE DAKOTAS
AND NEBRASKA. THIS COULD PUSH HIGH TEMPS DOWN FURTHER INTO THE
TEENS FOR MONDAY WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE LIMITING
FACTOR FOR EVEN COLDER TEMPS WILL BE THE LACK OF A DEEP SNOW
PACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL US. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
MODIFICATION OF THE ARCTIC AIR AS IT MOVES IN. REGARDLESS,
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THIS ARCTIC BLAST WILL OCCUR.
IMPACTS: WITH THIS BEING A ARCTIC/DRY AIRMASS, PRECIP CHANCES
LOOK TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 PERCENT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS
CAUSING PRECIP LOCALLY. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE TEMPS THAT
WILL BE 15-25 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. WIND CHILL VALUES SUNDAY,
MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS COULD BE BELOW ZERO WITH AIR TEMPS
NOT WARMING ABOVE FREEZING. THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF EXCESSIVE
COLD WILL BE DIFFICULT ON THOSE WITH COLD VULNERABILITIES,
LIMITED/NO HEATING SYSTEMS, ETC. PROPER PRECAUTIONS AND
PREVENTATIVE ACTIONS WILL NEED TO BE TAKEN.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI
TONIGHT CLEARING WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH A FEW PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS, THEN WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND SWING TO THE EAST AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS RETURNING BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BURCHFIELD
LONG TERM...BURCHFIELD
AVIATION...WISE
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