794
FXUS63 KSGF 160530
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1130 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGHS REACH INTO
THE 50S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
- A 40-80% CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT FOR AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 65. NO WINTRY PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND
TWENTIES AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THIS WILL LIKELY
CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 214 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
CONTINUED QUIET AND WARMER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS
RIDGING BECOMES MORE PREDOMINANT. LOOK FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30,
THEN HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 214 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXIT THE AREA FRIDAY WHILE A SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST, RESULTING IN A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
FOR HIGHS IN THE 50S WHILE WINDS GUST TO 25-40 MPH (STRONGEST
OVER THE WEST). AS THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT, ALONG WITH A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE, MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT, RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AND
SHIFT EAST. BEST RAINFALL CHANCES OF 40-80% ARE ALONG AND EAST
OF HWY 65 WHERE 0.1-0.25" OF QPF IS IN THE FORECAST. THIS
SHOULD BE ALL RAIN WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IMPACTS
EXPECTED.
THE REST OF THE LONG TERM IS DRY, BUT MUCH COOLER.
COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, RESULTING IN HIGHS
IN THE 30S SATURDAY AND LOWS IN THE TEENS SATURDAY NIGHT. WIND
CHILLS WILL DROP DOWN TO AROUND ZERO BY SUNDAY MORNING.
COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION, WITH THE
COLDEST AIR BEING OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. 850MB
TEMPS ARE SHOWN BY MODELS (WITH GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT) TO BE
AROUND -20C.
LOOK FOR HIGHS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE MID TEENS TO MID
20S, WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS (POSSIBLY BELOW ZERO UP NORTH). WINDS DON'T LOOK VERY
STRONG DURING THE COLDEST PERIOD, BUT EXPECT WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS SMALL,
RESULTING IN GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THESE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES.
THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF EXCESSIVE COLD WILL BE DIFFICULT ON
THOSE WITH COLD VULNERABILITIES, LIMITED/NO HEATING SYSTEMS,
ETC. PROPER PRECAUTIONS AND PREVENTATIVE ACTIONS WILL NEED TO BE
TAKEN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH TAF PERIOD. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT VEERING WINDS TO
THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH LEADING TO LLWS INTO THE
EARLY MORNING.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...RUNNELS
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