082
FXUS63 KSGF 161728
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1128 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 40S TODAY THEN THE 50S FRIDAY
- A 40-80% CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT FOR AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 65. A FEW SNOW FLAKES MAY BE SEEN
AS THE PRECIPITATION ENDS EARLY SATURDAY BUT NO WINTRY
IMPACTS.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES 15 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS DURING THIS TIME IN THE
TEENS AND TWENTIES AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH
DAYTIME WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND NIGHTLY VALUES OF
ZERO TO MINUS 10. THIS WILL LIKELY CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD
CONDITIONS FOR THOSE WITHOUT SUFFICIENT HEATING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
SEASONAL WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AS HEIGHTS RISE UNDER NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE BAJA WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER TODAY.
THIS UPPER LOW WILL BE FILLING OVER TIME HOWEVER WEAK
DIFFLUENCE FORMS FRIDAY COMPLIMENTS OF A LEFT EXIT REGION OF A
50 KNOT 500 MB/100 KNOT 250 MB JET. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
IMPROVE AS 20 TO 30 MPH SOUTHERLY WINDS FORM EVENTUALLY LEADING
TO PATCHY LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH BETTER LIFT FORMING FARTHER
EAST...RAIN CHANCES WILL RANGE FROM 20% ALONG I-49 TO 30% ALONG
HIGHWAY 65 AND THEN 50% OR HIGHER EAST OF HIGHWAY 63. INITIAL
COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SNOW FLAKES AS
THE SYSTEM DEPARTS INTO EARLY TUESDAY BUT ANTICIPATE NO WINTRY
IMPACTS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY...PUNCTUATED WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER
WEATHER THROUGH EARLY PORTIONS OF THIS PERIOD FOLLOWED BY A
WARMING TREND.
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE BRISK WITH WINDS OVER 20
MPH COMBINED WITH THE INITIAL ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR ADVECTION TO
RESULT IN NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY THE
ARRIVAL OF A SECOND COLD FRONT WITH A MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR
MASS. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE AS MODELS
ARE SHOWING GOOD MODEL TO MODEL CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS.
UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE CONUS WILL BE DOMINATED SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BY THE JET STREAM SWEEPING SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE ROCKIES FLATTENING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND THEN TURNING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL NOSE
DIVE FROM AROUND ZERO SATURDAY TO APPROACHING -20 MONDAY.
EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE IS THE 1044 SURFACE HIGH THAT THE NAEFS/GEFS
FORECASTS TO BE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS SURFACE HIGH DOESN'T QUITE REACH THE 1050.8 RECORD HIGH
PRESSURE FOR SPRINGFIELD SET ON JANUARY 7, 1968 BUT THE 3-4
STANDARD DEVIATION COMES WITH AN AVERAGE RETURN INTERVAL OF 10
YEARS OR GREATER. CONSEQUENT RECORD LOWS FOR THE 19TH-21ST ARE
10 TO 15 DEGREES STILL COLDER BUT COLD IS COLD AND CONCERNS ARE
NOTED WITH THE IMPACT ON THE HOMELESS AND OTHERS WITH
INSUFFICIENT HEATING.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS
TO DEPART TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH CONTINUED WARMING BACK TO
AROUND NORMAL BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND A GOOD
SIGNAL FOR THE WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AND WHILE THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL DESCEND WELL INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL INCREASE DURING THE LATTER
PORTION ON THE WEEK WITHIN THIS PATTERN. LONGER RANGE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THAT THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT UPPER WAVE SHOULD
ARRIVE BEFORE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TRAVELS NORTHWARD...KEEPING
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE REGION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
MAIN AVIATION IMPACTS THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE LLWS TONIGHT THAT
TRANSITIONS INTO GUSTY SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ON FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE CATEGORIES WILL REMAIN VFR.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RUNNELS
LONG TERM...RUNNELS
AVIATION...TITUS
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