588
FXUS63 KSGF 170556
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1156 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A 50-90% CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 65. LOWER CHANCES WEST. A FEW
SNOW FLAKES MAY BE SEEN AS THE PRECIPITATION ENDS EARLY
SATURDAY BUT NO WINTRY IMPACTS.
- SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND TWENTIES AND
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS, WITH DAYTIME WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS AND NIGHTLY VALUES OF ZERO TO -8. THIS
WILL LIKELY CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS FOR SENSITIVE
GROUPS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
CONTINUED QUIET AND WARMER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS
RIDGING BECOMES MORE PREDOMINANT. LOOK FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXIT THE AREA FRIDAY WHILE A SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST, RESULTING IN A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
FOR HIGHS IN THE 50S WHILE WINDS GUST TO 30-40 MPH (STRONGEST
OVER THE WEST). AS THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT, ALONG WITH A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE, MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT, RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AND
SHIFT EAST. BEST RAINFALL CHANCES OF 50-90% ARE ALONG AND EAST
OF HWY 65 WHERE 0.10-0.20" OF QPF IS IN THE FORECAST. THIS
SHOULD BE ALL RAIN WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IMPACTS
EXPECTED, HOWEVER THERE IS AN OUTSIDE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FLURRIES RIGHT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING PRECIP. EVEN IF
SOME FLURRIES MATERIALIZE, NO ACCUMULATIONS OR IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED.
THE REST OF THE LONG TERM IS DRY, BUT MUCH COOLER.
COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, RESULTING IN HIGHS
IN THE 30S SATURDAY AND LOWS IN THE TEENS SATURDAY NIGHT. WIND
CHILLS WILL DROP DOWN TO AROUND ZERO BY SUNDAY MORNING.
COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION, WITH THE
COLDEST AIR BEING OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. 850MB
TEMPS ARE SHOWN BY MODELS (WITH GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT) TO BE
AROUND -20C.
LOOK FOR HIGHS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE MID TEENS TO MID
20S, WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS (POSSIBLY BELOW ZERO UP NORTH). WINDS DON'T LOOK VERY
STRONG DURING THE COLDEST PERIOD, BUT EXPECT OVERNIGHT WIND
CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. DAYTIME WIND
CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ARE EXPECTED. ENSEMBLE
SPREAD IS SMALL, RESULTING IN GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THESE VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES.
THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF EXCESSIVE COLD WILL BE DIFFICULT ON
THOSE WITH COLD VULNERABILITIES, LIMITED/NO HEATING SYSTEMS,
ETC. PROPER PRECAUTIONS AND PREVENTATIVE ACTIONS WILL NEED TO BE
TAKEN.
TEMPERATURES START TO CLIMB A LITTLE ON TUESDAY, BUT WEDNESDAY
WILL SEE HIGHS BACK IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
CLEAR SKIES WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z HOWEVER MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. AN AREA OF
LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE OUT OF ARKANSAS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
EVENING. THUS FAR HAVE KEPT IN PROB30S HOWEVER MAY UTILIZE
PREVAILING GROUPS AS TIMING CONFIDENCE INCREASES. JLN WILL
MAINLY STAY DRY. THE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IS LESS THAN 10
PERCENT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY MORNING
WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30KTS LIKELY AT THE SITES. JLN WILL
EXPERIENCE THE HIGHEST GUSTS WHERE THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
35KT GUSTS. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST
TOWARDS THE VERY END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
LIKELY AT THE SITES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...BURCHFIELD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page