944
FXUS63 KSGF 170901
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
301 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY.
WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
- A 50-90% CHANCE OF RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 65. LOWER CHANCES WEST OF
HIGHWAY 65. A FEW SNOW FLAKES MAY BE SEEN AS THE PRECIPITATION
ENDS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BUT NO WINTRY IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
- SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND TWENTIES AND
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS, WITH DAYTIME WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS AND NIGHTLY VALUES OF ZERO TO -8. THIS
WILL LIKELY CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS FOR SENSITIVE
GROUPS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND CURRENT CONDITIONS: A "SPLIT FLOW" PATTERN
WAS OCCURRING ACROSS THE CONUS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS SLOWLY
MOVING EAST INTO ARIZONA. PACIFIC MOISTURE COULD BE SEEN
STREAMING EAST WITH THIS FEATURE. FURTHER NORTH, UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND COLD ARCTIC AIR WAS LOCATED ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER. A MID LEVEL RIDGE WAS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 5-7C. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED
ACROSS THE GULF COAST, KEEPING THE HIGHER MOISTURE SUPPRESSED.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE OCCURING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
AND DESPITE CLEAR SKIES, TEMPS RANGED FROM THE LOWER 30S TO
LOWER 40S WITH THE 40S GENERALLY WEST AND SOUTH OF SPRINGFIELD.
TODAY: AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVES EAST, SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA
ALONG A COLD FRONT. A 50KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA, STRETCHING NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND
WESTERN MISSOURI. GIVEN CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS, THE MORNING
HOURS WILL LIKELY REMAIN CLEAR HOWEVER MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE BY MID DAY AND ESPECIALLY FOR THE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL TO MIX
DOWN SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS FROM THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM MID
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE THICKER CLOUDS
ARRIVE. THE RAP IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH MIXING (POTENTIAL
FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH) WITH THE HREF GENERALLY
SUGGESTING AN AREA WEST OF HIGHWAY 65 MIXING DOWN WIND GUSTS OF
30 TO LOCALLY 45 MPH. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR A SHORT
FUSE/SMALL AREAL WIND ADVISORY IF CONFIDENCE IN STRONGER MIXING
INCREASES. REGARDLESS, WE CONTINUE TO MESSAGE THE GUSTY WINDS
TODAY.
THE GUSTY WINDS, "MILDER" START AND AT LEAST MORNING SUNSHINE
WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY. CONDITIONAL
CLIMATOLOGY WITH 850MB TEMPS SUGGESTS THAT WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
REACH THE MIDDLE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH SOME
AREAS REACHING THE UPPER 50S. WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN OBSERVATION
OF 60 DEGREES WEST OF SPRINGFIELD TODAY AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS
THE HIGHER/WARMER END OF TEMP GUIDANCE. THE KEY WITH TEMPS
TODAY WILL BE THE CLOUDS. IF THEY ARE SLOWER TO ARRIVE OR NOT AS
THICK THEN MORE WIDESPREAD UPPER 50S WOULD OCCUR. THE EXCEPTION
WOULD BE ANY REMAINING SNOW COVERED AREAS NORTHEAST OF
SPRINGFIELD.
BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING (GENERALLY AFTER 4-5PM), UPPER
LEVEL LIFT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. OUR AREA WILL BE
LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET
AND LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALSO BE OCCURING. MOST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN AREA OF RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA, NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THIS
AREA OF RAIN WILL THEN LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS,
GENERALLY AFFECTING AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 AND ALONG
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44. MU CAPE LOOKS TO REMAIN LESS THAN
100J/KG THEREFORE NO THUNDER IS EXPECTED. THERE HAS BEEN A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS, MAINLY ACROSS
THE FAR EASTERN OZARKS AS HIGHER MOISTURE ARRIVES AS THE SYSTEM
IS EXITING. LATEST HREF AND WPC GUIDANCE SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF
0.25IN TO JUST UNDER 0.50 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL ALONG AND
EAST OF A GAINESVILLE/WEST PLAINS TO SALEM LINE. AMOUNTS WILL
LIKELY DROP OFF RAPIDLY WITH WESTERN EXTENT (GENERALLY 0.1IN
AROUND THE SPRINGFIELD METRO).
AFTER ROUGHLY 10PM, A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER FROM THE NORTHWEST,
PUTTING AN END TO THE PRECIP AS WELL AS DROPPING TEMPERATURES
AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS UP TO 30 MPH. FOR MOST AREAS, THE PRECIP
WILL HAVE ENDED LONG BEFORE TEMPS REACH FREEZING. THE ONE
EXCEPTION MAY BE NORTHEAST OF SPRINGFIELD NEAR ROLLA WHERE A
VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW FLAKES MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN COULD
OCCUR. THE CHANCE OF THIS REMAINS VERY LOW (LESS THAN 20
PERCENT) AND NO IMPACTS/ACCUM WOULD OCCUR. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL BELOW FREEZING AND INTO THE UPPER 20S BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
SATURDAY: COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY WITH
850MB TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 0 TO -10C RANGE. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO A LARGE AMOUNT OF ARCTIC AIR SPILLING SOUTH INTO
THE US AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES IN. LOOKING AT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE EXTENDED HREF DATA, CLOUDS MAY
LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FOR A LARGE PART OF THE DAY. THIS WOULD
ALSO BE SUPPORTIVE BY NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU
WHICH TYPICALLY KEEPS CLOUDS LONGER DURING THE COLD SEASON. THIS
WOULD LIKELY KEEP TEMPS IN THE 20S ALL DAY, STRUGGLING TO REACH
FREEZING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE MO/AR BORDER. NORTHERLY WIND
GUSTS UP TO 25MPH WILL ALLOW FOR WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS IN THE MORNING AND TEENS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. ONE
THING WE ARE MONITORING IS SOME VORTICITY THAT MOVES THROUGH
KANSAS AND INTO THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SATURDAY. WHILE NOT ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT, THE EXTENDED RAP
AND A FEW OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS SHOWS AN AREA OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS CAUSING A BAND OF FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-44. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THIS OCCURING HOWEVER
WE DID INCREASE POPS FROM NEAR 0 TO JUST LESS THAN 20 PERCENT
TO BEGIN MENTIONING THIS POTENTIAL. IT WOULD BE A QUICK MOVING
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IF IT OCCURS AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY EVENING. CURRENTLY NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS IN THE FORECAST HOWEVER IF THE SNOW MATERIALIZES
THEN A DUSTING WOULD BE POSSIBLE (LATEST SNOW PROBS INDICATE A
10-30% CHANCE OF 0.1 IN OR MORE).
SUNDAY AND MONDAY: EVEN COLDER AIR ALOFT (850MB TEMPS -15 TO -20C)
WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY. A 1040MB SURFACE HIGH WILL BE SLIDING
TOWARDS THE AREA AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT HIGH TEMPS WILL
LARGELY REMAIN IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20, WHICH IS ABOUT 20-25
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. WIND CHILLS SUNDAY MORNING LOOK TO REMAIN
IN THE 0 TO -5F RANGE WHICH WOULD REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE CRITERIA
FOR A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY. THE COLDEST NIGHT APPEARS TO BE
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD. NBM 25/75TH PERCENTILES FOR LOWS ARE 0 TO 7F FOR MOST
OF THE AREA WHICH LEADS TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SINGLE DIGIT LOWS.
THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR EVEN COLDER TEMPS COULD BE MID/HIGH
CLOUDS THAT COULD MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER COLD DAY IS
EXPECTED MONDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOWER
20S. WHILE THIS AIRMASS WILL BE COLD FOR JANUARY, IT WILL NOT BE
ANYWHERE CLOSE TO RECORD TERRITORY. HOWEVER, THOSE WITH COLD
VULNERABILITIES WILL NEED TO TAKE PROPER PRECAUTIONS/PREPARATIONS
DURING THIS COLD SNAP.
LATEST ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A PIECE OF ENERGY PINWHEELING
AROUND THE FLOW LATE MONDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO FLURRIES IF
ENOUGH MOISTURE IS PRESENT BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS
JUNCTURE.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DEEP COLD WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST OF
THE AREA BEGINNING TUESDAY. WINDS LOOK TO RETURN OUT OF THE
SOUTH WHICH COULD INCREASE TEMPS FURTHER INTO THE 20S. LATEST
NBM STILL HAS ABOUT A 10 DEGREE SPREAD IN HIGHS FOR TUESDAY AS
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAST WE MODERATE THE LOW LEVEL
TEMPS. ADDITIONAL MODERATING TEMPS LOOK TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY AS
WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY. TEMPS LOOK TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN MID TO
LATE WEEK AS THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF ENERGY
THAT LOOKS TO REMAIN OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA EARLY IN THE
WEEK. WHILE ENSEMBLES DO SUGGEST ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/BATCH OF COLD AIR WILL DIVE SOUTH, THEY DIFFER ON HOW FAR
WEST THE TROUGH DIGS AND ANY INTERACTION WITH THAT CUT OFF LOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN US. A CLUSTER OF GUIDANCE (GENERALLY GEFS)
SUGGESTS MORE INTERACTION/STRONGER ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY THURSDAY, CAUSING A COLD AND WET PATTERN.
HOWEVER MOST OTHER ENSEMBLES DO NOT SHOW THIS PATTERN STRUCTURE,
KEEPING A COLD BUT DRIER PATTERN. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH AS WE GET THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND IT IS ADVISED NOT TO
LATCH ONTO ANY ONE PARTICULAR DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IN THESE
LONG RANGES, ESPECIALLY IN THESE WINTER PATTERNS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
CLEAR SKIES WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z HOWEVER MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. AN AREA OF
LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE OUT OF ARKANSAS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
EVENING. THUS FAR HAVE KEPT IN PROB30S HOWEVER MAY UTILIZE
PREVAILING GROUPS AS TIMING CONFIDENCE INCREASES. JLN WILL
MAINLY STAY DRY. THE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IS LESS THAN 10
PERCENT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY MORNING
WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30KTS LIKELY AT THE SITES. JLN WILL
EXPERIENCE THE HIGHEST GUSTS WHERE THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
35KT GUSTS. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST
TOWARDS THE VERY END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
LIKELY AT THE SITES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BURCHFIELD
LONG TERM...BURCHFIELD
AVIATION...BURCHFIELD
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