981
FXUS63 KSGF 171925
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
125 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A 40-90% CHANCE OF RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
GREATEST FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 AND
SOUTH OF I-44, WITH TOTALS BETWEEN 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES,
LOCALLY UP TO 0.50 INCHES.
- SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND TWENTIES AND
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS, WITH DAYTIME WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS AND NIGHTLY VALUES OF 8 TO -8. THIS
WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS FOR OUTDOOR AND
SENSITIVE GROUPS.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN 10% OR LESS SUNDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRANSLATING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR
MOSAICS SHOW A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS OKLAHOMA IN
RESPONSE IN RESPONSE TO THIS WAVE. A STRONG 50+ KT LOW-LEVEL
JET HAS SET UP OVER THE MO/KS/OK/AR FOUR CORNERS AREA, WHICH HAS
AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.
AS DEEP SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION, RAIN WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. FROM A TIMING/LOCATION STANDPOINT, LOCATIONS ALONG AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 (AND MORE SPECIFICALLY SOUTH OF I-44) WILL
RECEIVE THE GREATEST RAINFALL TOTALS AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES
BETTER ORGANIZED. THE LATEST FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE
CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE, GENERALLY RANGING FROM
0.10-0.25" FOR MOST, WITH LPMM DATA SUGGESTING LOCALIZED
POCKETS NEAR A HALF INCH ARE POSSIBLE. HI-RES GUIDANCE DEPICTS
VERY LITTLE (<100 J/KG) IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY IN SOUTHERN
MISSOURI, SO THE CHANCE OF ANY LIGHTNING EMBEDDED IN THIS
ACTIVITY IS VERY LOW (<10%), ALBEIT NONZERO.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MISSOURI OZARKS OVERNIGHT,
BRINGING WITH IT COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
COLD CONDITIONS SATURDAY-TUESDAY:
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AS AN ARCTIC AIRMASS SAGS SOUTHWARD. IN FACT, THE MAX
TEMPERATURE ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY OCCUR AT MIDNIGHT FOR MOST.
A MODEST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT COINCIDENT WITH THIS COLDER
AIR WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20-30 MPH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ALOFT, GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A VORTICITY LOBE
ROUNDING THE BASE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. A FEW MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI SATURDAY EVENING IN RESPONSE TO
MODEST LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. CONFIDENCE IN ANY
ACCUMULATIONS REMAINS LOW, HOWEVER, AS NBM PROBABILITIES OF
RECEIVING AT LEAST 0.10" ARE 10% OR LESS.
A NOTABLE FEATURE OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD AIR WILL BE
THE LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE COLD IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
MODEST DIURNAL WARMING. NBM PERCENTILE DATA SUPPORT HIGHS IN
JUST THE 20S AND TEENS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR 10 DEGREES. SUNDAY IN PARTICULAR WILL
FEATURE WIND CHILLS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS
EVEN DURING THE AFTERNOON. TO THAT END, OVERNIGHT WILL CHILLS
ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE 8 TO -8 DEGREE RANGE. THIS WILL
LIKELY CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS FOR OUTDOOR AND SENSITIVE
GROUPS.
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
WE MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL LATE MONDAY
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DEPICTS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIGGING THROUGH THE PLAINS. HOWEVER, THE VAST MAJORITY OF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP THE AREA DRY, SO POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT
BELOW 10% FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM BACK UP CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS BY MIDWEEK--HOWEVER TEMPORARY--AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS
RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION
RESUMES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD AS A
RAIN SYSTEM LIFTS OUT OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN
ARKANSAS. CONFIDENCE IN RAIN IS HIGHEST AT THE SGF AND BBG
SITES, WHILE A PROB30 GROUP WAS RESERVED FOR JLN AS THE MAJORITY
OF THE RAIN WILL PASS JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINAL. RAIN
LOOKS TO END AT ALL SITES BY 06Z. THE CHANCE OF LIGHTNING IS
VERY LOW (<10%).
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET BUT WILL DECREASE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH AFTER 06Z WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL MAY ALSO BRING WITH IT A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DIDIO
LONG TERM...DIDIO
AVIATION...DIDIO
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