512
FXUS63 KSGF 181141
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
541 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH COLDER TODAY WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AND
TWENTIES. A 20-30% CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW PRODUCING UP TO A
DUSTING OF SNOW THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 60.
- SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND TWENTIES AND
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS, WITH DAYTIME WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS AND NIGHTLY VALUES OF 8 TO -8. THIS
WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS FOR OUTDOOR AND
SENSITIVE GROUPS.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN 10% OR LESS SUNDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WAS ESSENTIALLY COVERING MOST OF THE CENTRAL US. MUCH COLDER
AIR ALOFT WAS ON ITS WAY SOUTH, SPILLING INTO THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. ONE SMALLER WAVE WAS CURRENTLY PUSHING
THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE RAIN BEGINNING TO EXIT THE AREA. A
COLD FRONT AS OF 2AM WAS JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44. BEHIND THE
FRONT, GUSTY NORTH WINDS WERE OCCURING WITH FALLING TEMPS. THE
FREEZING LINE LAGGED FROM THE FRONT BY ABOUT 100 MILES. A
CLEARING LINE WAS ALSO SEEN MOVING INTO THE AREA HOWEVER
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS WERE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND
NORTHERN MISSOURI SPILLING SOUTHEAST.
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THE
AREA THROUGH SUNRISE WITH PRECIP GRADUALLY ENDING AND TEMPS
FALLING BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. NORTH WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT AREA ROADS BEFORE TEMPS
FALL TOO FAR BELOW FREEZING THEREFORE NOT SEEING A WIDESPREAD
FREEZING OF WET ROADS/FLASH FREEZE ISSUE AT THIS TIME BUT THOSE
TRAVELING WILL NEED TO REMAIN COGNIZANT OF ANY WET PAVEMENT IN
THIS MORNING. SHOULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THIS MORNING AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS BUILDING IN THROUGH THE DAY. ONCE TEMPS DROP THIS
MORNING, THEY WILL LIKELY REMAIN PRETTY CONSTANT THROUGH THE DAY
WITH MANY AREAS NOT CLIMBING BACK ABOVE FREEZING. GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 30MPH WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND TWENTIES.
BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WE WILL BE WATCHING THE NEXT
WAVE/VORTICITY SLIDE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. INSPECTION OF
SOUNDINGS AND FRONTOGENESIS POTENTIAL SUPPORTS THE CONTINUED
IDEA OF A BAND OF FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW THAT TRANSLATE EAST
FROM NORTHERN OKLAHOMA/SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS
AND FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI, GENERALLY AFTER 4PM, LASTING THROUGH
THE EVENING. THIS SEEMS TO BE LARGELY DRIVEN BY FN IN THE
600-700MB LAYERS. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS THE INCOMING DRY AIR
WHICH WILL LIKELY ACT TO CREATE A SHARP NORTHERN GRADIENT.
CURRENTLY IT APPEARS THAT AREAS ALONG AND MAINLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 60 IN MISSOURI WILL SEE THIS ACTIVITY. AREAS FURTHER
NORTH WILL EITHER SEE A FEW FLURRIES OR NO SNOW AT ALL. GIVEN
THE CONSISTENT RUNS OF SHORT TERM GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES
SHOWING THIS, WE DID INCREASE POPS INTO THE 20-30% RANGE. THESE
MAY NEED BUMPED UP EVEN MORE IN ADDITIONAL UPDATES IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES IN COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW. THE MAIN REASON POPS ARE
SO LOW CURRENTLY IS THE VERY LOW QPF. GENERALLY LOOKING AT ONLY
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF AT MOST HOWEVER WITH SNOW RATIOS AROUND
15-18:1, THIS COULD CREATE A FEW AREAS SEEING A DUSTING (LESS
THAN 0.5IN) OF SNOW, MAINLY CLOSE TO THE ARKANSAS BORDER. THIS
IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z HREF LPMM SNOW OUTPUT. GIVEN THE
COLD AIR, AND SNOW FALLING GENERALLY IN THE EVENING/NIGHT, THIS
COULD CREATE A FEW SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROADWAYS AND WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL THROUGH THE DAY. IF THE DRY
AIR COMES IN STRONGER THEN THIS POTENTIAL COULD GET
SUPPRESSED/PUSHED MORE INTO ARKANSAS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
DROP WELL INTO THE TEENS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
SUNDAY AND MONDAY: MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT (850MB TEMPS -15 TO -20C)
WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY. A 1040MB SURFACE HIGH WILL BE SLIDING
TOWARDS THE AREA AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT HIGH TEMPS WILL
LARGELY REMAIN IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20, WHICH IS ABOUT 20-25
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. WIND CHILLS SUNDAY MORNING STILL LOOK TO
REMAIN IN THE 0 TO -8F RANGE WHICH WOULD REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE
CRITERIA FOR A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY BUT WILL BE CLOSE IN SOME
AREAS. GIVEN THE CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS BEFORE THE HIGH MOVES IN,
WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OF THE
DAY.
THE COLDEST NIGHT STILL APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. NBM 25/75TH
PERCENTILES FOR LOWS ARE 2 TO 9F RESPECTIVELY FOR MOST OF THE
AREA WHICH LEADS TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SINGLE DIGIT LOWS. THE
LIMITING FACTOR FOR EVEN COLDER TEMPS COULD BE MID/HIGH CLOUDS
THAT COULD MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER COLD DAY IS EXPECTED
MONDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOWER 20S. WHILE
THIS AIRMASS WILL BE COLD FOR JANUARY, IT WILL NOT BE ANYWHERE
CLOSE TO RECORD TERRITORY. HOWEVER, THOSE WITH COLD
VULNERABILITIES WILL NEED TO TAKE PROPER
PRECAUTIONS/PREPARATIONS DURING THIS COLD SNAP.
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A PIECE OF ENERGY PINWHEELING
AROUND THE FLOW LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD
TO FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW IF ENOUGH MOISTURE IS PRESENT BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS JUNCTURE AS IT APPEARS THE HIGHEST
CHANCE MIGHT BE JUST WEST OF THE AREA.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DEEP COLD WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST
OF THE AREA BEGINNING TUESDAY. WINDS LOOK TO RETURN OUT OF THE
SOUTH WHICH COULD INCREASE TEMPS FURTHER INTO THE 20S TO NEAR 30.
LATEST NBM STILL HAS ABOUT A 10 DEGREE SPREAD IN HIGHS FOR
TUESDAY AS THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAST WE MODERATE THE
LOW LEVEL AIRMASS. ADDITIONAL MODERATING TEMPS LOOK TO OCCUR
WEDNESDAY AS WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY. TEMPS LOOK TO CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: THE GENERAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES
TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL US
LATE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLUTION
OF THE PATTERN AS ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS COMPRISED OF THE GEFS ARE
MUCH DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH AND COLDER THAN THE OTHERS. NBM
POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT STILL LOOK REASONABLE THOUGH AS
MOISTURE REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 540 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY AND BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. CEILINGS LOOK TO REMAIN LARGELY VFR HOWEVER THEY MAY
FLUCTUATE INTO MVFR FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME THIS THROUGH THIS
MORNING. AN AREA OF FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW LOOKS TO MOVE INTO
THE BBG AREA THIS EVENING AND HAVE UTILIZED A PROB30 GROUP FOR
NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BURCHFIELD
LONG TERM...BURCHFIELD
AVIATION...BURCHFIELD
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