000
FXUS63 KSGF 181930
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
130 PM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THROUGH TONIGHT: WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY. A 20-40% CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT, GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
60. POTENTIAL FOR A DUSTING OF SNOWFALL, WITH A FEW SLICK
SPOTS POSSIBLE.
- SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND TWENTIES AND
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS, WITH DAYTIME WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS AND NIGHTLY VALUES OF 8 TO -8. THIS
WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS FOR OUTDOOR AND
SENSITIVE GROUPS.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN 10% OR LESS SUNDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES
BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 130 PM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
THROUGH TONIGHT: A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS CONTINUES TO FUNNEL
INTO THE REGION TODAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION PERSISTENT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS. TEMPERATURES HAVE RANGED FROM UPPER
TEENS/LOWER 20S (NORTH) TO UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S (SOUTH) AS THE
FRONT CLEARS THE AREA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
HAVE MADE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER, WITH WIND CHILLS IN TEENS. BEHIND
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE SLIDES JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS AREA MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI. RECENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE LIGHT SNOW WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARKANSAS, POTENTIALLY EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE AREA. THIS LIGHT
SNOW WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH 600-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS IN THE
AREA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY ON
THE EXTENT AND COVERAGE OF THE LIGHT SNOW GIVEN THE DRY AIR
BUILDING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THAT BEING SAID,
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW TO MEDIUM ON LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADING
SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS EVENING. IF THE FORCING IS ABLE TO
OVERCOME THE DRY AIR, LIGHT SNOW COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS 5 TO 6
PM ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST BEFORE SLIDING EAST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES (20-40%) ARE FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 60 THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH ACTIVITY COMING TO AN END
AROUND MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THE LIGHT NATURE OF THIS POTENTIAL SNOW,
AMOUNTS WOULD BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING (LESS THAN 0.5 INCH).
WHILE IMPACTS WOULD BE LIMITED OVERALL, A FEW SLICKS SPOTS MAY
DEVELOP ON AREA ROADWAYS GIVEN THE COLD AIR BUILDING INTO THE
AREA. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR UPDATES ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, A COLD
NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOWS AROUND 10 TO 15
DEGREES, AND WIND CHILLS AROUND 0 TO -10 INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 130 PM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
SUNDAY-MONDAY: AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEKEND, MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THIS IS
CHARACTERIZED BY 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -15 TO -20 C.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING, THIS IS ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS
FOR THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE COLDEST DAY
OF THE PERIOD IS ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S. A FEW DEGREES WARMER INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 20S. FURTHERMORE, FRIGID OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR
MINIMUM WIND CHILLS AROUND 0 TO -10 DEGREES EACH MORNING. THOSE
WITH COLD VULNERABILITIES WILL NEED TO TAKE PROPER
PRECAUTIONS/PREPARATIONS DURING THIS COLD SNAP. MEANWHILE,
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK GIVEN THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. IF THERE IS ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT, WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
FLURRIES WITH A PASSING WAVE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS
POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HINT AT A GRADUAL PATTERN
SHIFT BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. THIS WOULD SUPPORT
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES INTO THE REGION, ESPECIALLY BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK. TUESDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE IN THE MUCH COLDER
AIR MASS WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S. HOWEVER, BY WEDNESDAY HIGHS
PUSH INTO THE 30S TO NEAR 40. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: BY LATE WEEK, MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING MODERATING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS A LOW
CONFIDENCE SCENARIO (AS DEPICTED BY THE WPC CLUSTER ANALYSIS)
HIGHLIGHTING ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS
LOW CONFIDENCE SCENARIO WOULD SUPPORT A RETURN OF COLD AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NONETHELESS, A DRIER PATTERN REMAINS LIKELY
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR
UPDATES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. LOW CHANCES (10-30%) FOR LIGHT SNOW AT
KBBG THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD OVERCAST SKIES SCATTER OUT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS OUT OF NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD,
WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PEREZ
LONG TERM...PEREZ
AVIATION...PEREZ
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