230
FXUS63 KSGF 192000
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
200 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOMALOUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. DAILY
HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS WITH WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 0 TO -10
DEGREES. THIS WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS FOR
OUTDOOR AND SENSITIVE GROUPS.
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AHEAD, WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES LESS
THAN 10% THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES RETURN CLOSER TO
NORMAL (UPPER 30S TO 40S) THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
THROUGH TONIGHT: A 1037MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT ANOMALOUSLY COLD WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS
AIR MASS IS RATHER DRY, AS PORTRAYED BY 12Z KSGF SOUNDING.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 20 MPH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIND
CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OUT IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS THE AREA. AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, WINDS BECOME LIGHTER AS THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE AREA. REGARDLESS, A
VERY COLD NIGHT IS IN THE FORECAST WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AREAWIDE. DESPITE LIGHTER WINDS AND INCREASING
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, WIND
CHILLS WILL STILL MAKE IT FEEL CLOSER TO -5 TO 5 DEGREES. THIS
COMES UP SHORT OF MEETING COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA IN OUR
AREA. NONETHELESS, COLD IS COLD AND THOSE WITH COLD
VULNERABILITIES WILL NEED TO TAKE PROPER PRECAUTIONS/PREPARATIONS
DURING THIS COLD SNAP.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
MONDAY-TUESDAY: THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
ANOMALOUS COLD INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK, AS 850MB
TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND -15 TO -20 DEGREES. TO PUT INTO
CONTEXT THE DEPTH OF THIS COLD AIRMASS ACROSS THE CONUS, A
SYSTEM IS TO BRING WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO AREAS ALONG THE GULF
COAST FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO NORTHERN FLORIDA. WHILE OUR AREA
REMAINS MOSTLY DRY THROUGH EARLY WEEK, TEMPERATURES REMAIN 20
TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
MIDDLE 20S. ADDITIONALLY, OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING CAN BE EXPECTED. MINIMUM WIND CHILLS
APPROACH 0 TO -10 DEGREES BY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE (<10% CHANCES) FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WITH A
PASSING WAVE MONDAY NIGHT, WITH MOST OF THE AREA LIKELY
REMAINING DRY.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY: BY MID-WEEK, THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
EAST OF THE REGION WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES BUILDING INTO THE
AREA. THIS WILL SUPPORT A WARMING TREND THROUGH MID TO LATE
WEEK, INCLUDING TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE FIRST TIME
SINCE SATURDAY MORNING (JANUARY 18TH). HIGHS REACH INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
PUSHING 40 OUT WEST. THIS WARM UP WILL BE SUPPLEMENTED BY BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH. THE GRADUAL MODERATING OF
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL CONTINUES THROUGH LATE WEEK, WITH
HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S BY FRIDAY. ANY
PASSING WAVES OF ENERGY APPEAR TO BE MOISTURE STARVED, KEEPING
THE REGION DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
BY NEXT WEEKEND, WPC CLUSTER ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
RETURN OF MORE ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A DIGGING TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING INTO LATE SATURDAY/SUNDAY, THOUGH THERE IS
STILL REMAINING UNCERTAINTIES ON THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION
OF HIGHEST POPS. FOR THE TIME BEING, WE WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE 10-30% POPS LATE NEXT WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES
ARE PROGGED TO REACH NEAR NORMAL TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE 40S NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME LIGHTER THIS EVENING AROUND 5
TO 10 KNOTS, WITH INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PEREZ
LONG TERM...PEREZ
AVIATION...PEREZ
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