348  
FXUS63 KSGF 210543  
AFDSGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO  
1143 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- COLD TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH  
TUESDAY. LOWS WILL DROP TO JUST BELOW TO ABOVE ZERO TONIGHT AS  
HIGHS ONLY WARM INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON TUESDAY.  
 
- A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY  
MORNING. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW  
ZERO ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD  
CONDITIONS FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND SENSITIVE GROUPS.  
 
- TEMPERATURES RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL (UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S)  
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (MID  
40S TO LOWER 50S) EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025  
 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING SOUTH INTO THE REGION THIS  
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS  
EVENING AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT A FEW FLURRIES  
OCCUR AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THIS EVENING, BUT A DRY AIR MASS IS IN  
PLACE WHICH WILL LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL WITH THE BETTER POTENTIAL  
REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA.  
 
A COLD AIR MASS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AS  
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S THIS  
AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL DROP TO A FEW  
DEGREES ABOVE TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO (-4 TO 4 RANGE).  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT  
INTO THURSDAY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND WILL  
INCREASE TO UP TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH AT TIMES TONIGHT INTO  
TUESDAY MORNING. THE WINDS WILL START TO WEAKEN FROM WEST TO  
EAST TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE  
REGION. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO  
RANGE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS  
EFFECT FOR THE AREA FROM 12AM TONIGHT TO 12PM TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT  
FOR THE COLD CONDITIONS.  
 
THE COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA ON  
TUESDAY AS HIGHS ONLY WARM INTO MIDDLE TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S.  
A DRY AIR MASS WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA ON  
TUESDAY, AS AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES DROP TO AROUND 20 TO 30  
PERCENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY THE  
AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025  
 
THE SURFACE HIGH STARTS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT  
INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN ALONG WITH A  
WARMING TREND. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL WARM INTO  
THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S WHICH IS CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR  
THIS TIME OF YEAR. WINDS COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES ON WEDNESDAY AS  
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND THE SURFACE HIGH. THE  
MODELS SHOW ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION  
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A DRIER AIR MASS WILL BE IN  
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA, BUT THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME  
FLURRIES AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. NO ACCUMULATIONS  
OR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES.  
 
A MORE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE  
REGION BEHIND THE TROUGH LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE START OF THE  
WEEK. A WARMER AIR MASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION AS HIGHS  
WARM INTO THE 40S WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.  
 
THE ENSEMBLE MODEL MEMBERS THEN INDICATE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL  
TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND  
WITH A TROUGH MOVING TROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND  
BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN (10-30%) TO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT  
INTO SUNDAY. OVERALL THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE BETTER RAIN  
POTENTIAL BEING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. THE MODELS THEN  
DIFFER ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE LOW MOVING EAST NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025  
 
A BAND OF CLOUDS AROUND 5KFT WITH FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE TO  
MOVE THROUGH THE SITES THROUGH 09Z. CLEAR SKIES ARE THEN  
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS  
WILL GRADUALLY TURN WESTERLY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH A TURN  
TO THE SOUTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY AT  
JLN TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.  
 

 
   
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR KSZ073-097-  
101.  
MO...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR MOZ055>058-  
066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...WISE  
LONG TERM...WISE  
AVIATION...BURCHFIELD  
 
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