337
FXUS63 KSGF 160525
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1125 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON TRANSITION TO
SNOW THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. FORECAST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF
A DUSTING TO 1 INCH, LOCALLY UP TO 2 INCHES COULD PRODUCE A
FEW SLICK SPOTS AND REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
- WINDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
GUST UP TO 30-35 MPH.
- A WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI MONDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE ARE
MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (50-80%) OF AT LEAST 5 INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILLS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS QUITE WELL THE UPPER-LEVEL LONGWAVE
TROUGH SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONG AND DEEP SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS PRODUCING ROBUST
MOISTURE ADVECTION THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO
VALLEYS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FOCUSING A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
ARCING INTO NORTHEAST INTO TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY. A SECONDARY
BOUNDARY IS FORCING A BAND OF LIGHTER PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE
I-44 CORRIDOR. THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW IS SITUATED OVER
EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
AS THE LOW HAS MOVED INTO MISSOURI, THE SOUTHERN BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS HAS CLIPPED PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI AND
THE EASTERN OZARKS. THOUGH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS WILL
REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CWA, THE 12Z HREF LPMM SUGGESTS
LOCATIONS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI COULD RECEIVE UP TO 0.75 TO 1
INCH OF RAIN.
BEHIND THE LOW, A COLDER AIRMASS WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA. MODELS
SHOW FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT MODEST LIFT THROUGH
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE, GENERALLY LIMITING SNOWFALL RATES.
HOWEVER, RAP OUTPUT SUGGEST BANDING COULD BRIEFLY PRODUCE HIGHER
SNOWFALL RATES. THE NBM 25TH-75TH PERCENTILE DATA SUGGEST
SNOWFALL TOTALS RANGING FROM A TRACE UP TO 2 INCHES LOCALLY.
TOP-DOWN ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION (RAIN, SNOW, SLEET) COULD OCCUR DURING THE
TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW, BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST
LONG. WIDESPREAD TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED, BUT A FEW
SLICK SPOTS AND REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE TEENS AND MID 20S. WITH THE
DEPARTING LOW TO OUR EAST AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING ACROSS
THE PLAINS, A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30-35 MPH. THE COMBINATION OF COLD AND
WIND WILL DRIVE WIND CHILLS INTO THE -5 TO 10 DEGREE RANGE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST SAT
FEB 15 2025
WINTER STORM MONDAY EVENING-WEDNESDAY MORNING:
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A WINTER STORM WILL BRING
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS AND DISRUPTIONS TO DAILY LIFE
THROUGH SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS MONDAY EVENING
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS HAVE REMAINED IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES THAT WILL BE IN PLAY FOR THIS
EVENT. ALOFT, SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS WILL BE
UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 120+ KT UPPER-LEVEL JET
STREAK TUESDAY MORNING. BY TUESDAY EVENING, A SHORTWAVE IS
PROGGED TO DIG THROUGH THE PLAINS, NOW PLACING THE REGION UNDER
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET, FURTHER ENHANCING SYNOPTIC-
SCALE LIFT. ANALYSIS OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING FROM THE GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGESTS THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL OCCUR IN THE 700 MB
LAYER, COINCIDING WITH NEGATIVE EPV TO THE SOUTH, SUGGESTING
ENHANCED FRONTAL CIRCULATION. FURTHERMORE, ECMWF ESATS ARE
SHOWING SPECIFIC HUMIDITY STANDARDIZED ANOMALY VALUES OF 1-2
THROUGH THIS LAYER, INDICATING AMPLE MOISTURE CONTENT. THESE
FACTORS COMBINED WITH A COLD THERMO PROFILE AND TALL DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE WILL SUPPORT HEAVY SNOWFALL POTENTIAL. WITH THE
SNOWFALL SPANNING MULTIPLE FORECAST PERIODS, THE EXTREME
FORECAST INDEX (EFI) AND SHIFT OF TAILS DO NOT NECESSARILY
CAPTURE AN EXTREME SNOWFALL SIGNAL, WITH WEAKER SIGNALS ON EACH
SIDE OF 00Z WEDNESDAY.
LATEST 48-HR SNOWFALL PROBABILITIES ENDING 12 PM WEDNESDAY:
>2 INCHES: 90-100%
>4 INCHES: 70-95%
>6 INCHES: 50-90%
>8 INCHES: 15-80% (LOWEST NEAR MO/AR BORDER)
TO THAT END, THE PROBABILISTIC WINTER STORM SEVERITY INDEX
(WSSI-P) IS LIKEWISE SHOWING INCREASING CHANCES FOR IMPACTS
ACROSS THE BOARD:
MINOR IMPACTS: 80-100%
MODERATE IMPACTS: 60-90%
MAJOR IMPACTS: 10-50%
THUS, THERE ARE HIGH CHANCES OF AT LEAST MODERATE IMPACTS, WHICH
MEANS TO EXPECT DISRUPTIONS TO DAILY LIVE, HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS, AND CLOSURES AND DISRUPTIONS TO INFRASTRUCTURE. A
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
OF COURSE, DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT, AND FORECAST
ADJUSTMENTS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. WE URGE
EVERYONE TO KEEP UP WITH THE NWS FORECAST AND MAKE PREPARATIONS
AS NEEDED.
DANGEROUS COLD TUESDAY-THURSDAY:
THERE REMAINS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS
WILL BARGE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE SNOW TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. ENSEMBLES SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE 1050+ MB SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING OUT OF CANADA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK, BRINGING WITH IT BITTERLY COLD AIR. NAEFS AND ECMWF ESATS
SHOW THIS EXCEEDING THE 99TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY ACROSS
THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. IN FACT, THE EFI IS ALREADY JUST ABOUT
MAXED OUT (-0.90 TO -0.99) FOR BOTH MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS OUR CWA. NBM
PERCENTILE DATA SHOW HIGH PROBABILITIES (>75%) THAT AFTERNOON
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB INTO THE 20S THROUGH
THIS PERIOD, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. WITH A DECENT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE,
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH WIND CHILLS EVEN LOWER. FORECAST MINIMUM
WIND CHILLS RANGE FROM -10 TO -25 DEGREES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. FURTHER REFINEMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURE AND WIND
FORECASTS MAY NUDGE THESE WIND CHILLS EITHER WAY, BUT OVERALL
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS DURING
THIS PERIOD.
FORTUNATELY, ENSEMBLES AGREE IN SHOWING A GRADUAL WARMUP LATE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WITH ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES FOR
PRECIPITATION. INDEED, THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER'S 6-10 DAY
OUTLOOK SHOWS INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE FEB 21-25 TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
A SNOW BAND IS MOVING WEST TO EAST TONIGHT DROPPING VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO 2 SM FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. EXPECT SNOW TO MOVE
THROUGH BY 07Z. IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS STAY ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL
GUSTING UP TO 30 KNOTS. VFR RETURNS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
NORTHERLY WINDS START TO DIMINISH.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ073-097-
101.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR KSZ073-097-101.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST SUNDAY FOR MOZ055>058-
066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.
SHORT TERM...DIDIO
LONG TERM...DIDIO
AVIATION...SORIA
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