107
FXUS63 KSGF 161743
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1143 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- USE CAUTION THIS MORNING IF OUT TRAVELING AS ROADS MAY BE PARTLY
TO MOSTLY COVERED FROM THE OVERNIGHT SNOW BAND.
- A WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI
MONDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WINTER STORM WATCH
IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TUESDAY THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY.
- THERE ARE MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (50-85%) OF AT LEAST 6 INCHES
OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THESE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE CONTINUED
TO TREND UPWARD.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILLS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
MOST OF THE SNOW FROM THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED ITS WAY EAST INTO
SOUTHEAST MO. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS SYSTEM WERE AROUND
0.5-1". THERE HAVE MANY REPORTS OF SLIDE-OFFS AROUND THE AREA. USE
CAUTION IF OUT TRAVELING EARLY THIS MORNING AS ROAD TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SUB- FREEZING AND MAY CONTAIN SLICK SPOTS.
CLOUDS AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STICK AROUND FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE DAY TODAY. THEN, AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST
INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS START TO DIMINISH AND SKIES WILL
CLEAR OUT. THOUGH, EVEN WITH A LITTLE BIT OF SUNSHINE, TODAY WILL
STILL BE CHILLY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. TONIGHT,
EXPECT LOWS TO DIP INTO THE TEENS WITH WIND CHILL VALUES FROM 4-14
DEGREES.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
WINTER STORM MONDAY EVENING-WEDNESDAY MORNING:
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A WINTER STORM WILL BRING HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS AND DISRUPTIONS TO DAILY LIFE THROUGH SOUTHERN
MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS MONDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS HAVE REMAINED IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES THAT WILL BE IN PLAY FOR THIS EVENT. MOST OF
THE CWA WILL BE UNDER A RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 120+ KT UPPER-
LEVEL JET STREAK TUESDAY MORNING. BY TUESDAY EVENING, A SHORTWAVE IS
PROGGED TO DIG THROUGH THE PLAINS, NOW PLACING THE REGION UNDER THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET, FURTHER ENHANCING SYNOPTIC- SCALE LIFT.
ANALYSIS OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SUGGESTS THE STRONGEST FORCING
WILL OCCUR IN THE 700 MB LAYER, COINCIDING WITH NEGATIVE EPV TO THE
SOUTH, SUGGESTING ENHANCED FRONTAL CIRCULATION. FURTHERMORE, ECMWF
ESATS ARE SHOWING SPECIFIC HUMIDITY STANDARDIZED ANOMALY VALUES OF 1-
2 THROUGH THIS LAYER, INDICATING AMPLE MOISTURE CONTENT. THESE
FACTORS COMBINED WITH A COLD THERMO PROFILE AND TALL DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE WILL SUPPORT HEAVY SNOWFALL POTENTIAL.
THESE FEATURES LINE UP THE BEST DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING WHICH IS WHEN THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL COULD OCCUR.
LATEST 48-HR SNOWFALL PROBABILITIES ENDING 12 PM WEDNESDAY:
>6 INCHES: 50-85%
>8 INCHES: 20-75%
>10 INCHES: 15-65%
>12 INCHES: 10-45%
>14 INCHES: 5-30%
THE LOWER-END AMOUNTS OCCUR NEAR MO/AR BORDER AND CENTRAL MO NEAR I-70.
THE HIGHER-END AMOUNTS OCCUR ALONG I-44. EXACT LOCATIONS OF WHERE THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR AREN'T CERTAIN YET AND THERE MAY BE
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS NORTH/SOUTH.
TO THAT END, THE PROBABILISTIC WINTER STORM SEVERITY INDEX (WSSI-P)
IS LIKEWISE SHOWING INCREASING CHANCES FOR IMPACTS ACROSS THE BOARD:
MINOR IMPACTS: 80-100%
MODERATE IMPACTS: 60-90%
MAJOR IMPACTS: 20-60%
THUS, THERE ARE HIGH CHANCES OF AT LEAST MODERATE IMPACTS, WHICH
MEANS TO EXPECT DISRUPTIONS TO DAILY LIVE, HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS, AND CLOSURES AND DISRUPTIONS TO INFRASTRUCTURE. A WINTER
STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MIDNIGHT TUESDAY THROUGH 6 AM
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT THIS WATCH TO BE UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AS THE SNOW BEGINS TO EXIT ON EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE ARCTIC
AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE AREA BEHIND GUSTY NORTH WINDS.
LOW TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER WITH EACH FORECAST UPDATE
ESPECIALLY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SUBZERO LOW TEMPERATURES. WE
WILL SEE WIND CHILLS DIP INTO THE -10 TO -25 DEGREE RANGE DURING
THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL. WITH MOST OF THE AREA FEELING THOSE COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME, WE WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUING AN EXTREME COLD WARNING WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS AS THEY WILL OCCUR OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WE URGE EVERYONE TO KEEP UP WITH THE NWS FORECAST
AND MAKE PREPARATIONS AS NEEDED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
FLURRIES AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL END NW TO SE OVER THE NEXT 2-3
HOURS AS CLOUD MOVE OUT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. LOOK FOR A MAJOR SNOW STORM
TO IMPACT THE ENTIRE AREA EARLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING,
FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD TEMPERATURES.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR KSZ073-097-101.
MO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.
SHORT TERM...SORIA
LONG TERM...SORIA
AVIATION...TITUS
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