405
FXUS63 KSGF 162126
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
326 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT.
- FORECAST GENERALLY CALLS FOR 6-10" OF SNOW WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO 14 INCHES WHERE SNOW BANDS DEVELOP.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILLS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 203 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM VS LONG TERM. THERE IS
A 20-30% CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES OVER A SMALL
PORTION OF OUR CENTRAL MISSOURI MONDAY COUNTIES MORNING. NO
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED IN OUR CWA.
TEMPERATURES LEADING UP TO THE MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR QUICK ROAD IMPACTS AND NEARLY INSTANT ACCUMULATIONS.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS FOLLOWED BY HIGHS MONDAY
RANGING FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S
SOUTH. SKIES MONDAY WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. THIS WILL
NOT LEAD TO OVERLY WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE
EVENT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 203 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING VERY SUPPORTIVE METEOROLOGICAL
FEATURES FOR OUR THE WELL ADVERTISED HEAVY SNOWFALL EVENT, WILL
FOCUS THIS DISCUSSION ON CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST,
CONFIDENCE LEVELS, AND IMPACTS. VARIOUS MAPS SHOWING
PROBABILITIES, AMOUNTS, TIMING, ETC ARE AVAILABLE IN THE DSS
PACKET AT WEATHER.GOV/SGF AND ON THE WINTER WEATHER BRIEFING
PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/SGF/WINTER.
WHAT HAS CHANGED:
QPF AMOUNTS HAVE COME DOWN SLIGHTLY AS SOME OF THE UPPER ENERGY
IS SPLIT OUT INTO A SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHER PLAINS, WHICH
REDUCES ENERGY OVER OUR AREA A BIT. STILL, PLENTY OF FORCING
EXISTS TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOWFALL. MINOR CHANGES TO
AMOUNTS CAN BEEN SEEN, BUT THE MAIN STORY IS THAT MAJOR IMPACTS
ARE STILL EXPECTED.
ADDITIONALLY, ADDED SOME SLEET MIXED IN ALONG THE MO/AR BORDER
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS MODELS ARE SHOWING A WARM NOSE
EXTENDING JUST INTO THE CWA FROM THE SOUTH. BY 6PM TUESDAY,
EXPECT THAT SNOW/SLEET MIX WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. IT'S ALSO
POSSIBLE THAT THE SLEET AREA SHIFT SOUTH OR NORTH SOME.
WITH EVEN THE 10TH PERCENTILE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BEING AT OR ABOVE
OUR 5" WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA, CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE UPGRADE FROM WATCH TO WARNING OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA.
TIMING:
SNOW MOVES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AND EXITS THE AREA BY
6AM WEDNESDAY. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS FORECAST TO FALL TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY EVENING. TUESDAY MORNING (MAINLY NORTH) AND EVENING (ALL
AREAS) COMMUTES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED.
AMOUNTS:
GENERALLY FORECASTING 6-10" OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
SLIGHTLY LESS ALONG THE MO/AR BORDER WHERE SLEET MAY MIX IN.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 14" WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE
BANDING CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED. THIS EXACT AREA WILL BE HARD TO
PREDICT, BUT THE GREATEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS/PROBABILITIES ARE IN
A WEST-EAST ORIENTED BAND CURRENTLY PLACED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CWA. THIS MAY SHIFT NORTH OR SOUTH WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.
NATURE OF SNOWFALL AND IMPACTS:
SNOW WILL BE ON THE DRIER SIDE, STARTING OUT CLOSER TO 12:1
SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO, INCREASING TO 15-18:1 THROUGH THE EVENT.
THIS WILL BE LESS WET AND HEAVY THAN SOME OF OUR NORMAL EVENTS
AND WILL BLOW AROUND EASIER. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GUST TO
20-30 MPH, STRONGEST ALONG THE I-49 CORRIDOR, LEADING TO SOME
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES. BLOWING
SNOW AND SNOWFALL RATES IN GENERAL ARE EXPECTED LEAD TO PERIODS
OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/4 MILE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY, THEN DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TUESDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT. THESE TEMPERATURES AND COOL ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR INSTANT OR NEARLY INSTANT
ACCUMULATIONS AND ROAD IMPACTS WHEN PRECIP STARTS.
THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO MAJOR IMPACTS TO TRAVEL AND
INFRASTRUCTURE ACROSS THE AREA. TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE
FOR SOME. THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS ARE ADVISED TO CANCEL OR
ADJUST PLANS. WHILE THE SNOW SHOULD END BY 6AM WEDNESDAY,
SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE DAY
WEDNESDAY, INCLUDING DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE, WHILE SNOW
REMOVAL CONTINUES. IN ADDITION, VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE
TRAVEL MORE DANGEROUS THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. TUESDAY WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S AND WIND CHILLS GENERALLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO SEE WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS 20
BELOW ZERO. THESE TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL BE DANGEROUS
FOR ANYONE CAUGHT OUTDOORS (I.E. INVOLVED IN A TRAFFIC
COLLISION OR SLIDEOFF). PLAN ACCORDINGLY.
VERY COLD CONDITIONS:
VERY COLD CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST, BUT ONLY BORDERLINE FOR AN
EXTREME COLD WARNING OVER SOME AREAS. THEREFORE, HELD OFF ON
ISSUING AN EXTREME COLD WATCH AS A LATER ISSUANCE OF A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE MORE FITTING.
WIND CHILL VALUES DURING THE PEAK OF THE COLD AREA AS FOLLOWS:
TUESDAY: -5 TO 15 (COLDEST N, WARMEST S).
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING: 0 TO -20 (WARMEST ALONG THE
MO/AR BORDER).
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: -5 TO 10 (WARMEST ALONG THE MO/AR BORDER).
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING: -5 TO -20 (WARMEST OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL MO).
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: 0 TO 15 (WARMEST OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MO).
THURSDAY NIGHT: -10 TO 10 (COLDEST WEST).
TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT MAY END UP STAYING
COOLER THAN FORECAST DEPENDING ON HOW THICK THE SNOW PACK IS.
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGHS IN THE 30S SATURDAY AND 40S
SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
FLURRIES AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL END NW TO SE OVER THE NEXT 2-3
HOURS AS CLOUD MOVE OUT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. LOOK FOR A MAJOR SNOW STORM
TO IMPACT THE ENTIRE AREA EARLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING,
FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD TEMPERATURES.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT TO 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ073-097-101.
MO...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT TO 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...TITUS
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