603
FXUS63 KSGF 171716
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1116 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE ENTIRE AREA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. SNOW WILL BEGIN TONIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT,
PEAKING TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AND ENDING WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT.
- FORECAST GENERALLY CALLS FOR 6-10" OF SNOW WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO 13 INCHES WHERE SNOW BANDS DEVELOP.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILLS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM 6PM TUE-12PM THU.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 150 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
REMINDER: VARIOUS MAPS SHOWING PROBABILITIES, AMOUNTS, TIMING,
ETC ARE AVAILABLE IN THE DSS PACKET AT WEATHER.GOV/SGF AND ON
THE WINTER WEATHER BRIEFING PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/SGF/WINTER.
WHAT HAS CHANGED:
SNOWFALL RANGES ARE STARTING TO TIGHTEN UP A BIT OVER THE AREA.
WE DID LOWER THE HIGH END AMOUNT FROM 14 TO 13 INCHES AS QPF
CONTINUES TO CHANGE. MINOR CHANGES TO AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR, BUT
THE MAIN STORY IS THAT MAJOR IMPACTS ARE STILL EXPECTED.
AS FOR THE SLEET THAT WAS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE ELIMINATED THE WARM NOSE OVER THE MO/AR BORDER AND
SHIFTED THE FREEZING LINE SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH. THOUGH,
CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET TUESDAY MORNING OVER
MCDONALD/BARRY COUNTIES, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ESPECIALLY
WITH ANY EVAPORATIVE COOLING THAT OCCURS. IF A SNOW/SLEET MIX
OCCURS, EXPECT A FULL CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AT THE LATEST BY 6PM
TUESDAY. IT'S ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE SLEET AREA SHIFTS SOUTH OR
NORTH SOME AGAIN.
TIMING:
SNOW MOVES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND EXITS THE AREA BY 6AM
WEDNESDAY. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS FORECAST TO FALL TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY EVENING. TUESDAY MORNING (MAINLY NORTH) AND EVENING (ALL
AREAS) COMMUTES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED.
AMOUNTS:
FORECASTING 6-10" OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA, WITH SLIGHTLY LESS
ALONG THE MO/AR BORDER. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 13"
WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE BANDING CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED. THIS
EXACT AREA WILL BE HARD TO PREDICT, BUT THE GREATEST SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS/PROBABILITIES ARE IN A WEST-EAST ORIENTED BAND CURRENTLY
PLACED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA. THIS MAY SHIFT NORTH OR SOUTH
WITH LATER MODEL RUNS.
NATURE OF SNOWFALL AND IMPACTS:
SNOW WILL BE ON THE DRIER SIDE, STARTING OUT CLOSER TO 12:1
SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO, INCREASING TO 15-18:1 THROUGH THE EVENT.
THIS WILL BE LESS WET AND HEAVY THAN SOME OF OUR NORMAL EVENTS
AND WILL BLOW AROUND EASIER. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GUST TO
20-30 MPH, STRONGEST ALONG THE I-49 CORRIDOR, LEADING TO SOME
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES. BLOWING
SNOW AND SNOWFALL RATES IN GENERAL ARE EXPECTED LEAD TO PERIODS
OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/4 MILE.
THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO MAJOR IMPACTS TO TRAVEL AND
INFRASTRUCTURE ACROSS THE AREA. TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE
FOR SOME. WHILE THE SNOW SHOULD END BY 6AM WEDNESDAY,
SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE DAY
WEDNESDAY, INCLUDING DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE, WHILE SNOW
REMOVAL CONTINUES.
COLD TEMPERATURES:
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY, THEN DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TUESDAY EVENING
AND NIGHT. EXPECT WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. THESE TEMPERATURES AND COOL ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
WILL ALLOW FOR INSTANT OR NEARLY INSTANT ACCUMULATIONS AND ROAD
IMPACTS WHEN PRECIP STARTS.
THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL BE DANGEROUS FOR
ANYONE CAUGHT OUTDOORS (I.E. INVOLVED IN A TRAFFIC COLLISION OR
SLIDEOFF). PLAN ACCORDINGLY. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE CWA FROM 6 PM TUESDAY THROUGH 12 PM
THURSDAY. USE CAUTION WHILE TRAVELING OUTSIDE. WEAR APPROPRIATE
CLOTHING, A HAT, AND GLOVES. KEEP PETS INDOORS AS MUCH AS
POSSIBLE. MAKE SURE OUTDOOR ANIMALS HAVE A WARM, DRY SHELTER,
FOOD, AND UNFROZEN WATER.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 150 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
THE BIGGEST STORY FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE COLD
TEMPERATURES. AGAIN, THERE IS A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY OUT FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA FROM 6PM TUESDAY THROUGH 12 PM THURSDAY. EXPECT
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE TEENS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND LOW
TEMPERATURES 0 TO -10 DEGREES WITH WIND CHILLS -10 TO -20 EACH
OF THOSE NIGHTS.
TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT MAY END UP STAYING
COOLER THAN FORECAST DEPENDING ON HOW THICK THE SNOW PACK IS.
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGHS IN THE 30S SATURDAY AND 40S
SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
EASTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY BY TUESDAY MORNING. MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, THEN CEILINGS WILL START TO LOWER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.
A NARROW BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BUT WILL NOT IMPACT
THE THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE SNOW TONIGHT AND KJLN AND KSGF
SITES COULD BE CLIPPED BY THIS BAND. THEN TUESDAY MORNING AN
AREA OF SNOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA AND CONTINUE BEYOND
THIS TAF PERIOD INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO IFR AND EVEN LIFR AT TIMES WITHIN THE
HEAVIER SNOW.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ073-097-101.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR KSZ073-097-101.
MO...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.
SHORT TERM...SORIA
LONG TERM...SORIA
AVIATION...WISE
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