636
FXUS63 KSGF 172048
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
248 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- SNOW WILL BEGIN FOR SOME TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT, PEAKING LATE
TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA,
WITH THE SNOW ENDING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- FORECAST GENERALLY CALLS FOR 6-12" OF SNOW WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 16 INCHES WHERE SNOW BANDS DEVELOP.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILLS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
- A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM
6PM TUESDAY THROUGH 12PM THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH WITH A
MUCH COLDER AIR MASS. TEMPERATURE CURRENTLY RANGE FROM THE
TEENS ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI. THE COLDER AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS RANGE FROM AROUND 5 DEGREES
NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE LOWER
TEENS TO THE MIDDLE 20S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. LIFT WILL START TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND A NARROW BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE BAND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SOMEWHERE FROM THE HIGHWAY 54
CORRIDOR TO HIGHWAY 60. THIS BAND WILL BE NARROW SO NOT ALL
LOCATIONS WILL BE IMPACTED TONIGHT. WITHIN THE BAND GENERALLY 1
TO 2" OF SNOW IS EXPECTED.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST AN AREA OF SNOW WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY MORNING WITH
THE SNOW PEAKING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE
SNOW WILL THEN END FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12" ARE
STILL EXPECTED WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 16". MODELS CONTINUE
TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WIDESPREAD 6" OR MORE OF SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER BANDS. THERE ARE STILL SOME
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS ON THE EXACT LOCATIONS OF THESE HEAVIER
BANDS BUT THEY ALL SHOW THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI.
SNOW RATIOS WILL BE HIGHER WITH THIS EVENT WITH THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. THEREFORE, THE SNOW WILL BE MORE DRIER IN
NATURE. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA, WITH GUSTS
UP TO AROUND 30MPH OCCURRING AT TIMES ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI. AS A RESULT SOME
BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW WILL OCCUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY DIFFICULT TO
IMPOSSIBLE FOR SOME. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR FROM LATE
TUESDAY MORNING WEST INTO TUESDAY EVENING IMPACTING THE EVENING
COMMUTE TUESDAY. WITH THE COLD CONDITIONS AND EXPECTED SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE BEYOND WEDNESDAY MORNING
AFTER THE SNOW ENDS. A WINTER STORM WARNING WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL 6AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE
ZERO TO FIVE ABOVE RANGE WITH WIND CHILL VALUES DROPPING TO 5 TO
15 BELOW.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY, A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIPITATION WITH IT, BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME FLURRIES WITH THE TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH
WILL SEND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR MASS. HIGHS WILL
ONLY WARM INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE TEENS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
LOWS ZERO TO 10 BELOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
WIND CHILL VALUES THURSDAY MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE 10 TO 20
BELOW RANGE. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL AGAIN ONLY WARM INTO THE TEENS, THOUGH
MORE SUN SHOULD OCCUR. LOWS FRIDAY MORNING DROP TO AROUND ZERO.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 20S. THE MODELS THEN SHOW AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH A
WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING RETURNING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
EASTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY BY TUESDAY MORNING. MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, THEN CEILINGS WILL START TO LOWER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.
A NARROW BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BUT WILL NOT IMPACT
THE THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE SNOW TONIGHT AND KJLN AND KSGF
SITES COULD BE CLIPPED BY THIS BAND. THEN TUESDAY MORNING AN
AREA OF SNOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA AND CONTINUE BEYOND
THIS TAF PERIOD INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO IFR AND EVEN LIFR AT TIMES WITHIN THE
HEAVIER SNOW.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ073-097-101.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR KSZ073-097-101.
MO...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE
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