399
FXUS63 KSGF 180905
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
305 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT NOW INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
- SNOW RATES WILL BE THE HEAVIEST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. SNOW WILL END EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
- FORECAST GENERALLY CALLS FOR 6-12" OF SNOW WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO 14 INCHES WHERE SNOW BANDS DEVELOP.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILLS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM 6PM TODAY THROUGH 12PM
THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 202 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
SNOW HAS STARTED TO PUSH INTO WEST CENTRAL MO EARLY THIS
MORNING. SO FAR, THE FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK FOR TODAY. SNOW
STARTS EARLY THIS MORNING, PEAKS THIS AFTERNOON, THEN ENDS BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL 6-12
INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 14 INCHES. THIS HAS BEEN
LOWERED FROM 16 INCHES BECAUSE THE SYSTEM HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO
THE SOUTHWEST. THOUGH, THERE WILL STILL BE BANDING WITHIN LARGE
SWATH OF SNOW.
THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO FALL ALONG I-44 AND
MOSTLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 65. DETERMINING EXACTLY WHERE THE
HIGHEST SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR WILL BE A BIT TRICKY DUE TO THE
MESOSCALE NATURE OF THE BANDING. AMOUNTS OF 14 OR 16 INCHES WILL
STILL BE VERY IMPACTFUL NO MATTER WHERE THEY FALL. THIS MORNING
THERE WILL BE TWO DISTINCT BANDS. ONE WILL BE OVER CENTRAL MO
AND THE OTHER WILL FORM ALONG I-44. THESE BANDS WILL EVENTUALLY
CONSOLIDATE BY LATE MORNING. AGAIN, IT'S TOUGH TO NARROW DOWN
WHERE EXACTLY THE INITIAL BANDS WILL SET UP BUT THAT'S WHAT THE
LATEST GUIDANCE IS SHOWING.
SNOW RATIOS WILL BE NEAR 15:1 TO 16:1 FOR MOST OF THE EVENT. AS
WE'VE MESSAGED BEFORE, THIS MEANS THE SNOW WILL BE LIGHT AND
FLUFFY AND WILL BLOW AROUND IN THE WIND. HAVE THE HIGHEST WIND
GUSTS MOSTLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 65. WIND GUSTS WILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST AROUND 30 MPH. THIS WILL CAUSE BLIZZARD-LIKE
CONDITIONS WITH ANY BLOWING SNOW THAT DOES OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN
THOSE AREAS. THIS WILL LOWER VISIBILITIES TO UNDER 1 SM AT
TIMES. WE DO NOT PLAN ON ISSUING A BLIZZARD WARNING AT THIS TIME
DUE TO THE CONDITIONS NOT MEETING THE HAZARD CRITERIA.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY DIFFICULT TO
IMPOSSIBLE FOR SOME. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR FROM LATE
TUESDAY MORNING WEST INTO TUESDAY EVENING IMPACTING THE EVENING
COMMUTE TUESDAY. WITH THE COLD CONDITIONS AND EXPECTED SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE BEYOND WEDNESDAY MORNING
AFTER THE SNOW ENDS. A WINTER STORM WARNING WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FROM NOW THROUGH 6AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S WITH THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES OCCURRING NEAR THE MO/AR BORDER. A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY BEGINS THIS EVENING AT 6 PM AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
12 PM THURSDAY FOR WIND CHILLS -10 TO -20 DEGREES EACH NIGHT.
TONIGHT'S LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 0 TO 5 ABOVE
RANGE WITH WIND CHILL VALUES DROPPING TO -1 TO -17.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 202 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AND A
MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN PLACE WITH IT. WE AREN'T EXPECTING
MUCH PRECIPITATION WITH IT (15-20% POPS OVER CENTRAL MO), BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FLURRIES WITH THE TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY NEAR CENTRAL MO. THE TROUGH WILL SEND A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGHS WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE
TEENS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOWS AT 0 TO -10 DEGREES WITH
WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR -10 TO -25 DEGREES. A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 12 PM THURSDAY.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL AGAIN ONLY WARM INTO THE TEENS, THOUGH
MORE SUN SHOULD OCCUR. LOWS FRIDAY MORNING DROP TO AROUND ZERO.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 20S. THE MODELS THEN SHOW AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH A
WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING RETURNING.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
VFR FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNTIL SNOW BEGINS TO FILL IN WEST TO
EAST AROUND 09-12Z. THEN, EXPECT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS FOR THE REST
OF THE PERIOD WITH GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS UP TO 30 MPH. SNOW WILL
BE HEAVY AT TIMES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL LOWER VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO UNDER 1 SM. SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ073-097-
101.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
THURSDAY FOR KSZ073-097-101.
MO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MOZ055>058-
066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
THURSDAY FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.
SHORT TERM...SORIA
LONG TERM...SORIA
AVIATION...SORIA
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