957
FXUS63 KSGF 182059
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
259 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE THE
HEAVIEST THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SNOW
WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
- ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10" ARE FORECAST ON TOP
OF THE SNOW THAT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED ACROSS THE AREA.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILLS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM 6PM TODAY THROUGH 12PM
THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
AN AREA OF SNOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOW DEVELOPING
WITHIN THE LARGER AREA OF SNOW. WITHIN THESE BANDS VISIBILITIES
WILL BE REDUCED TO ONE QUARTER MILE AND SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO
1.5" PER HOUR WILL OCCUR. SEEING THESE HEAVIER BANDS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA, BUT EXPECTED MORE OF THESE HEAVIER BANDS TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. STILL EXPECTING AN ADDITIONAL 5 TO
10" OF SNOW ON TOP OF WHAT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED, WITH SNOWFALL
TOTALS OF 6 TO 12". LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 14" ARE STILL
EXPECTED AS THE HEAVIEST SNOW WITH THIS THIS SYSTEM IS OCCURRING
NOW AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MUCH OF
THE AREA IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NOW. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES ARE
RESULTING IN HIGH SNOW RATIOS, AND THERE ARE SOME GUSTY
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OCCURRING WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW AT TIMES.
THE SNOW WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS
IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP
TO AROUND ZERO WITH WIND CHILLS OF 5 TO 15 BELOW ACROSS THE AREA
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
THE SNOW THAT IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD AIR MASS WILL BE
IN PLACE AS LOWS WILL DROP TO AROUND ZERO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
WIND CHILLS AROUND 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO.
A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE LESS MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THIS
LOW, BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME FLURRIES TO OCCUR
AT TIMES ON WEDNESDAY. LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
WILL OCCUR JUST A FEW LIGHT SNOW FAKES. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL
ONLY WARM INTO THE TEENS AS LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING DROPS INTO THE 0 TO 10 BELOW RANGE. WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL DROP TO AROUND 10 TO 20 BELOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.
HIGHS WILL AGAIN ONLY WARM INTO THE TEENS ON THURSDAY AS THE
COLD AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA BUT MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD
OCCUR ON THURSDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL DROP TO
AROUND ZERO AS HIGHS ON FRIDAY WARM INTO THE 20S TO POSSIBLY THE
LOW 30S. THE ENSEMBLE MODEL MEMBERS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD
AGREEMENT ON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK. SOME
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA PLEASE
SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
MODELS THEN SHOW A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 30S ON SATURDAY AND EXPECTED TO
WARM ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE MONDAY.
THE MODELS SHOW A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. SOME MODEL MEMBER BRING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI WITH THE
LOW, BUT OTHER MEMBERS SHOW THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA DRY. BEHIND THE TROUGH MODELS ARE SHOWING MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE REGION NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1109 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING THEN
WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND
LIFR VISIBILITIES WILL OCCUR WITH THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
AND WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY
TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR AFTER THE SNOW ENDS INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES:
FEBRUARY 19:
KJLN: -1/1978
FEBRUARY 20:
KSGF: 7/1918
KJLN: 16/1978
KVIH: 6/1903
KUNO: 8/9999
FEBRUARY 21:
KSGF: 0/1978
KJLN: 9/1963
KVIH: 2/1963
KUNO: 2/1963
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ073-097-
101.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
THURSDAY FOR KSZ073-097-101.
MO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MOZ055>058-
066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
THURSDAY FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE
CLIMATE...WISE
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