042
FXUS63 KSGF 191700
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1100 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SOME HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS LINGER ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS.
- AREAS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES THROUGH THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
- BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. DAILY HIGHS IN
THE TEENS. RECORD COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM 0 TO -10
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MINIMUM WIND CHILLS AROUND -10
TO -20, WITH A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRIER
WEATHER EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
THIS MORNING: SNOW HAS ENDED FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING, LEAVING BEHIND A WIDESPREAD SNOWPACK OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA. TRAVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN HAZARDOUS ACROSS THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY ON SECONDARY ROADWAYS AND RURAL AREAS. EXPECT THESE
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING
COMMUTE IN SOME AREAS.
A 1052 MB SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS SURFACE HIGH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR AN ANOMALOUSLY
COLD AIR MASS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. A FRIGID START TO THE
MORNING CAN BE EXPECTED, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND
ZERO DEGREES TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE ZERO. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH LINGER THROUGH SUNRISE, SUPPORTING WIND
CHILLS ANYWHERE FROM -10 TO -20. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT.
TODAY-TONIGHT: FOR TODAY, A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. WHILE THIS LOW IS RATHER MOISTURE
STARVED, ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF FLURRIES/LIGHT
SNOW THROUGH THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
BITTERLY COLD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AREAWIDE.
BY TONIGHT, THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXTENT OF
CLOUDS CLEARING THE AREA. REGARDLESS, A VERY COLD NIGHT IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM 0 TO -10.
SEVERAL RECORD LOWS ARE IN JEOPARDY OF BEING BROKEN (SEE
CLIMATE SECTION). EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES MAY BE EXPERIENCED IF
CLOUDS CLEAR IN THE WAKE OF AN EXISTING SNOWPACK. ADDITIONALLY,
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WILL SUPPORT MINIMUM
WIND CHILLS AROUND -10 TO -20. THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. IT IS WORTH
NOTING, AN UPGRADE TO AN EXTREME COLD WARNING MAY BE WARRANTED
AS CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON WIND CHILLS BELOW -20. HREF
PROBABILITIES ARE AROUND 30 TO 60% FOR WIND CHILLS BELOW -20,
GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 65. EITHER WAY, COLD IS COLD
AND CAN BE DANGEROUS. ACTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PREVENT
HYPOTHERMIA OR FROSTBITE, SUCH AS DRESSING IN LAYERS, COVERING
ALL EXPOSED SKIN, AND LIMITING TIME OUTDOORS.
THURSDAY: COLD WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS ONLY
CLIMB A FEW DEGREES INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S, WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW AND ABOVE ZERO.
ONCE AGAIN, RECORD LOWS REMAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WIND CHILLS REMAIN IN CHECK AS THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVERHEAD.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
FRIDAY: SUBTLE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES BUILD OVER THE REGION
WITH RETURN FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO WARM WITH AN
EXISTING SNOWPACK, WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE UPPER
20S TO NEAR FREEZING. MINIMAL SNOW MELT IS EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.
THIS WEEKEND-EARLY NEXT WEEKEND: ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR A WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS CHARACTERIZED BY THE
HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
SUPPORTING THE BEGINNING OF SOME SNOW MELT. THE DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS BUILD INTO SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
50S. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. NBM PROBABILITIES FOR HIGHS GREATER THAN
60 DEGREES ARE AROUND 40 TO 70%.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN IMPROVING, AS SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.
THESE SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER THROUGH THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE ALL SITES IMPROVE TO VFR STATUS THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS TO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAFS. OTHERWISE, NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERIODICALLY GUST UP
TO 20KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES:
FEBRUARY 20:
KSGF: 7/1918
KJLN: 16/1978
KVIH: 6/1903
KUNO: 8/9999
FEBRUARY 21:
KSGF: 0/1978
KJLN: 9/1963
KVIH: 2/1963
KUNO: 2/1963
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR KSZ073-097-
101.
MO...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR MOZ055>058-
066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.
SHORT TERM...PEREZ
LONG TERM...PEREZ
AVIATION...MELTO
CLIMATE...WISE
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