402
FXUS63 KSGF 192045
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
245 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SOME HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS LINGER ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS.
- AREAS OF VERY LIGHT FLURRIES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LITTLE TO NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
- BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. DAILY HIGHS IN
THE TEENS. RECORD COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM 0 TO -10
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MINIMUM WIND CHILLS AROUND -10
TO -20, WITH A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY AND AN EXTREME COLD
WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTED. TRAVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN
FAIRLY HAZARDOUS ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY ON THE MORE RURAL
ROADWAYS, WITH THE MODOT TRAVELERS MAP HIGHLIGHTING MOST (IF
NOT ALL) OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL MO SHOWING PARTLY TO FULLY
COVERED ROADS.
AN EXTENSIVE 1052MB SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO SETTLE INTO THE
REGION, FILTERING AN ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO A LARGE PORTION OF THE
CENTRAL CONUS. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON HAVE REMAINED IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/LOW TEENS, AND ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO CLIMB A FEW MORE DEGREES, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING
IN THE TEENS. ADDITIONALLY, WITH NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5-15MPH
OCCASIONALLY GUSTING UP TO 20MPH, WIND CHILL VALUES WILL REMAIN
NEAR ZERO AND INTO THE NEGATIVES. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT (AND FOR PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH NOON TOMORROW - MORE
ON THIS IN THE NEXT PARAGRAPH).
DANGEROUS COLD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT, AS OVERNIGHT LOWS
RANGE BETWEEN 0 TO -10 DEGREES, PUTTING RECORD LOWS IN JEOPARDY
(SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO
20-25MPH WILL DROP WIND CHILLS INTO THE -13 TO -23 RANGE. A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT, AND FOR THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES (TOWARDS CENTRAL
MO) UNTIL NOON TOMORROW. ELSEWHERE, WE'VE UPGRADED TO AN
EXTREME COLD WARNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS
AND CONTINUED IMPACTS ACROSS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL MO AND
SOUTHEAST KS. THIS IS IN EFFECT BEGINNING AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
UNTIL NOON TOMORROW.
THE MAIN MESSAGE IS THAT HAZARDOUS ROADS COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS
COLD WILL CONTINUE THE IMPACTS ACROSS THE AREA. IT'S IMPERATIVE TO
TAKE THE NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PREVENT HYPOTHERMIA OR FROSTBITE BY
DRESSING IN LAYERS, COVERING ALL EXPOSED SKIN, AND LIMITING TIME
OUTDOORS. IF YOU HAVE TO GO OUT ON THE ROADS TONIGHT, MAKE SURE TO
HAVE AN EMERGENCY KIT PREPARED THAT INCLUDES WARM CLOTHING,
BLANKETS, AND ANY OTHER ITEMS THAT CAN KEEP YOU WARM IF NEEDED.
THE COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
ONCE AGAIN TOPPING OUT IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE AREA, AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS AROUND ZERO. RECORD LOWS WILL AGAIN BE IN JEOPARDY AT OUR
CLIMATE SITES THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
SUBTLE MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WILL LEAD TO "WARMER" CONDITIONS ON
FRIDAY. HOWEVER, WITH THE SNOWMELT STILL EXPECTED OVER THE AREA,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S DURING THE
AFTERNOON, LEADING TO MINIMAL ADDITIONAL MELTING.
BY THIS WEEKEND WE'LL BEGIN TO SEE A WARMING TREND OVER THE REGION,
WITH HIGHS GRADUALLY CLIMBING TO THE UPPER 30S ON SATURDAY AND THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S BY SUNDAY. THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO 60S MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN IMPROVING, AS SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.
THESE SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER THROUGH THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE ALL SITES IMPROVE TO VFR STATUS THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS TO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAFS. OTHERWISE, NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERIODICALLY GUST UP
TO 20KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES:
FEBRUARY 20:
KSGF: 7/1918
KJLN: 16/1978
KVIH: 6/1903
KUNO: 8/9999
FEBRUARY 21:
KSGF: 0/1978
KJLN: 9/1963
KVIH: 2/1963
KUNO: 2/1963
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR KSZ073-
097-101.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST
THURSDAY FOR KSZ073-097-101.
MO...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MOZ066-
077>083-088>098-101>106.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST
THURSDAY FOR MOZ066-077>083-088>098-101>106.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR MOZ055>058-
067>071.
SHORT TERM...MELTO
LONG TERM...MELTO
AVIATION...MELTO
CLIMATE...WISE
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