000
FXUS63 KSGF 201747
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1147 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SOME HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS LINGER THROUGH TODAY AND
FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY ON SECONDARY ROADWAYS AND RURAL AREAS.
- RECORD COLD LOWS THIS MORNING RANGING FROM 0 TO -10. MINIMUM
WIND CHILLS AROUND -15 TO -25, WITH A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
AND AN EXTREME COLD WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON.
- BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. ADDITIONAL RECORD LOWS IN JEOPARDY.
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL SUPPORT MELTING OF THE EXISTING SNOWPACK. DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 200 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
THIS MORNING: A STRONG ARCTIC AIRMASS HAS SETTLED INTO THE
REGION WITH A 1044 MB SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE PLAINS. DESPITE
THE PRESENCE OF SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS, OVERNIGHT LOWS HAVE
DIPPED BELOW ZERO FOR MOST OF THE OZARKS. EXPECT LOWS TO BOTTOM
OUT BETWEEN -10 TO 0, WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 65. RECORD LOWS AT SPRINGFIELD, JOPLIN,
VICHY/ROLLA, AND WEST PLAINS ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING (SEE
CLIMATE SECTION). MEANWHILE, A LIGHT NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL
PERSIST AROUND 5 TO 15 MPH THROUGH THIS MORNING SUPPORTS WIND
CHILLS RANGING FROM -15 TO -25 ACROSS THE AREA. AN EXTREME COLD
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 54. TO
THE NORTH, A COLD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
DANGEROUS COLD COMBINED WITH SOME REMAINING SNOW COVERED
ROADWAYS SETS THE STAGE FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL AND PROLONGED
PERIODS OUTDOORS THROUGH THIS MORNING. IT'S IMPERATIVE TO TAKE
THE NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PREVENT HYPOTHERMIA OR FROSTBITE BY
DRESSING IN LAYERS, COVERING ALL EXPOSED SKIN, AND LIMITING
TIME OUTDOORS. IF YOU HAVE TO GO OUT ON THE ROADS, MAKE SURE TO
HAVE AN EMERGENCY KIT PREPARED THAT INCLUDES WARM CLOTHING,
BLANKETS, AND ANY OTHER ITEMS THAT CAN KEEP YOU WARM IF NEEDED.
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT: EXPECT A MIX OF SUN AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS TODAY, WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WHILE THE
COLD WEATHER HEADLINES EXPIRE AT NOON TODAY, THE COLD
TEMPERATURES PERSIST WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM MIDDLE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S. THIS WILL LIMIT ANY POTENTIAL SNOWMELT ONCE AGAIN
TODAY, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS SET TO DROP TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW OR
ABOVE ZERO. RECORD LOWS WILL BE IN JEOPARDY AGAIN TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WITH THE SURFACE HIGH DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD, WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE, KEEPING WIND CHILLS
IN CHECK AROUND -10 TO 0. WHILE THIS DOES NOT MEET CRITERIA FOR
COLD HEADLINES, IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT COLD IS COLD AND
NECCASSARY ACTIONS TO PREVENT HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE SHOULD
BE TAKEN.
FRIDAY: SUBTLE MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WILL LEAD TO "WARMER"
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WITH RETURN FLOW OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER,
AN EXISTING SNOWPACK WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING TO
MUCH, WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S. LIKEWISE TO
PREVIOUS DAYS, MINIMAL MELTING IS EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
SATURDAY-SUNDAY: THE GRADUAL WARMING TRENDS CONTINUE INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY, DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL. HIGHS SATURDAY REACH INTO ABOVE FREEZING INTO THE UPPER
30S, SUPPORTING SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK. HOWEVER, BETTER
MELTING TAKES PLACE INTO SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY WILL
FEATURE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.
NEXT WEEK: CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS SEEN BY SMALL
NBM MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE SPREADS AND PROBABILITIES. NBM
PROBABILITIES FOR HIGHS EARLY WEEK DEPICT THE FOLLOWING:
MAXT > 55: 70-100%
MAXT > 60: 40-70%
MAXT > 65: 10-40%
THE WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY, WHERE PROBABILITIES ARE
HIGHEST FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES > 60 AND > 65. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY 850MB LOCAL CLIMATOLOGY WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND
8-10C.
THIS PERIOD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SUPPORT THE MELTING OF
THE SNOWPACK. RATHER DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST, WITH LOW RAIN
CHANCES (10-30%) RETURNING ON WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING, WITH LIGHT (5-10
KTS) NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INTO THE EVENING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME CONFIDENTLY SOUTHERLY INTO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 200AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES:
FEBRUARY 20:
KSGF: 7/1918
KJLN: 16/1978
KVIH: 6/1903
KUNO: 8/9999
FEBRUARY 21:
KSGF: 0/1978
KJLN: 9/1963
KVIH: 2/1963
KUNO: 2/1963
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KSZ073-097-101.
MO...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MOZ066-077>083-
088>098-101>106.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MOZ055>058-
067>071.
SHORT TERM...PEREZ
LONG TERM...PEREZ
AVIATION...CAMDEN
CLIMATE...WISE
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