791
FXUS63 KSGF 202113
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
313 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SOME HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS LINGER THROUGH TODAY AND
FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY ON SECONDARY ROADWAYS AND RURAL AREAS.
- BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS IN THE -10 TO 0
DEGREE RANGE PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONAL RECORD LOWS IN JEOPARDY.
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL SUPPORT MELTING OF THE EXISTING SNOWPACK. DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
A BROAD AND STRONG (1045 MB) SURFACE HIGH STRETCHES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FROM CANADA TO MEXICO, WITH A SHALLOW BUT FRIGID
AIR MASS IN PLACE NEAR THE SURFACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
STAY IN THE TEENS, LIKELY BREAKING ALL FOUR CLIMATE SITES'
RECORDS FOR COOLEST HIGH TEMPERATURE. NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
BETWEEN 5-15 MPH WILL KEEP AFTERNOON WIND CHILLS BRISK AND IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS, PERHAPS WARMING UP TO 10-15 DEGREES ALONG
THE OSAGE RIVER VALLEY AND IN THE LOWER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL MISSOURI.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN 3-4 DEGREES OF 0 (-4 TO 4)
AS CLEAR SKIES ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TO ENHANCE THE
COOLING EFFECT OF THE SNOW COVER. DESPITE THE SLIGHT CALMING OF
WINDS THIS EVENING, WIND CHILLS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL REMAIN
DANGEROUSLY COLD, IN THE -10 TO 0 RANGE. THOUGH THIS IS PUSHING
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A FEW OF OUR SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES, WE HAVE OPTED NOT TO ISSUE AN ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN PERSISTENT,
WIDESPREAD WIND CHILLS BELOW -10 DEGREES. THERE WILL MORE THAN
LIKELY BE AT LEAST A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS THAT DIP BELOW -10
DEGREE WIND CHILLS FOR A COUPLE HOURS AROUND SUNRISE. CURRENT
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS JUST ABOVE THE NBM 25TH PERCENTILE; IF
EVENING TEMPERATURE AND/OR CLOUD TRENDS SUGGEST MORE EFFICIENT
COOLING (LESS CLOUD COVER/HIGH CLOUDS INFILTRATING EARLIER,
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NOT WARMING AS MUCH AS CURRENTLY
FORECAST), THEN TEMPERATURES WILL HEDGE CLOSER TO THE NBM 10TH
PERCENTILE AND A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE MORE LIKELY.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL US, WARM AIR IS
ADVECTED INTO THE OZARKS, LEAVING THE WORST OF THE COLD BEHIND
US AS TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE LOW 30S SOUTH OF THE PLATEAU, AND IN THE MID- TO
UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE.
A SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY, BRINGING UPPER-
LEVEL ENERGY TOWARDS THE AREA. RAISED POPS INTO THE 10-20% RANGE
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CHANCE OF SOME FLURRIES
IN EAST-CENTRAL KANSAS AND WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI. ANY FLURRIES
THAT ARE ABLE TO FORM IN AN ELEVATED DGZ WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME
A DEEP DRY LAYER BEFORE REACHING THE SURFACE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WARMING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
ON SATURDAY AND INTO THE 50S ON SUNDAY, WHICH WILL HELP TO MELT
SOME OF THE WHITE STUFF THAT'S NOW SITTING ALL OVER THE GROUND.
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL, AND TEMPERATURES CREEP UP PAST 60
DEGREES BY TUESDAY. OUR PRECIP CHANCES DON'T RETURN UNTIL
WEDNESDAY, WHEN THEY RISE TO A 15-30% CHANCE OF RAIN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING, WITH LIGHT (5-10
KTS) NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INTO THE EVENING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME CONFIDENTLY SOUTHERLY INTO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1235PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE 48-53
DEGREE RANGE. NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE
IN THE 28-32 DEGREE RANGE. THURSDAY'S TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AROUND 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
RECORD LOWEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES:
FEBRUARY 20:
SPRINGFIELD: 20/1918 FORECAST: 14
JOPLIN: 28/1978 FORECAST: 14
VICHY/ROLLA: 25/1966 FORECAST: 16
WEST PLAINS: 29/2015 FORECAST: 19
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES:
FEBRUARY 21:
SPRINGFIELD: 0/1978 FORECAST: -3
JOPLIN: 9/1963 FORECAST: -2
VICHY/ROLLA: 2/1963 FORECAST: -2
WEST PLAINS: 2/1963 FORECAST: 0
FEBRUARY 22:
JOPLIN: 7/1963FORECAST: 11
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CAMDEN
LONG TERM...CAMDEN
AVIATION...CAMDEN
CLIMATE...CAMDEN
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